{ "archive": "Amosphere World Cup resolved events", "snapshot_utc": "2026-07-17 15:47 UTC", "source": "football resolved prediction ledger", "events": [ { "sequence": 1, "prediction_id": "a6b0c7b5-ea26-4101-9cfe-6cce45f7766f", "created_at": "2026-06-07T19:20:21.562373Z", "event_date": "2026-06-11", "team1": "Mexico", "team2": "South Africa", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "no bet", "selected_outcome": null, "selected_odds": null, "selected_agent_prob": null, "team1_agent_prob": 0.675, "draw_agent_prob": 0.215, "team2_agent_prob": 0.11, "team1_market_odds": 1.45, "draw_market_odds": 4.7, "team2_market_odds": 9.6, "team1_market_source": "the-odds-api:Betfair:key#1", "draw_market_source": "the-odds-api:Betfair:key#1", "team2_market_source": "the-odds-api:Betfair:key#1", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-11", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 0, "fixed_stake": 0.0, "fixed_profit": 0.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.0, "kelly_profit": 0.0, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0, "half_kelly_profit": 0.0, "running_fixed_profit": 0.0, "running_kelly_profit": 0.0, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.0, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "aa608c898bb5d6ef3a358871db91d572b09cbba88022c1fa90179c890af6d09e", "instruction_hash_short": "aa608c898bb5", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0bfa37e1fb2efe9ccb05743635f74924e77265d3121e62e69fafb29fb9f457e1", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0bfa37e1fb2e", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:07.979475Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Mexico vs South Africa, 2026 World Cup Group A opener at Estadio Azteca. Model: Mexico 67.5%, Draw 21.5%, South Africa 11.0%. Mexico baseline/home/altitude edge, South Africa organized low-margin profile; no confirmed lineup/injury updates available at run time.", "recommendation_text": "No bet: no selection clears edge, threshold, and Kelly gates.", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 2, "prediction_id": "5e50969c-5ef5-499b-9d41-54b29205e921", "created_at": "2026-06-11T06:39:41.109771Z", "event_date": "2026-06-12", "team1": "South Korea", "team2": "Czechia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Czechia", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 2.96, "selected_agent_prob": 0.44, "team1_agent_prob": 0.3, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.44, "team1_market_odds": 2.84, "draw_market_odds": 3.2, "team2_market_odds": 2.96, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-12", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.15428571428571422, "kelly_profit": -0.15428571428571422, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.07714285714285711, "half_kelly_profit": -0.07714285714285711, "running_fixed_profit": -1.0, "running_kelly_profit": -0.15428571428571422, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.07714285714285711, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": "aa608c898bb5d6ef3a358871db91d572b09cbba88022c1fa90179c890af6d09e", "prompt_changed": 1, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:38.306402Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Prediction of record: South Korea 0.30 / Draw 0.26 / Czechia 0.44. Baseline kept after market disagreement re-check; confidence C due missing Czechia recorded-stats form under requested key and unconfirmed XIs.", "recommendation_text": "Czechia: strong back, back at 2.96, better than 2.32, half-kelly 7.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": "prompts/diffs/002-2026-06-12-aa608c898bb5-to-043fa3fcfd52/" }, { "sequence": 3, "prediction_id": "ccad1b11-1303-426d-b51c-c3b39582d2c3", "created_at": "2026-06-11T06:50:29.447018Z", "event_date": "2026-06-12", "team1": "Canada", "team2": "Bosnia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Bosnia", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 4.9, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.49, "draw_agent_prob": 0.28, "team2_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_market_odds": 1.87, "draw_market_odds": 3.75, "team2_market_odds": 4.9, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-12", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.03256410256410259, "kelly_profit": -0.03256410256410259, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.016282051282051294, "half_kelly_profit": -0.016282051282051294, "running_fixed_profit": -2.0, "running_kelly_profit": -0.1868498168498168, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.0934249084249084, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:38.390609Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Canada host Bosnia at BMO Field; baseline Canada edge but Betfair market is close, no edge passes gates.", "recommendation_text": "Bosnia: back, back at 4.90, better than 4.43, half-kelly 1.6%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 4, "prediction_id": "815591d8-f4c9-44fc-8abd-8e7f9149848c", "created_at": "2026-06-11T07:00:19.564801Z", "event_date": "2026-06-13", "team1": "USA", "team2": "Paraguay", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Paraguay", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 4.4, "selected_agent_prob": 0.26, "team1_agent_prob": 0.46, "draw_agent_prob": 0.28, "team2_agent_prob": 0.26, "team1_market_odds": 2.0, "draw_market_odds": 3.6, "team2_market_odds": 4.4, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 4, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-13", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.04235294117647062, "kelly_profit": -0.04235294117647062, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.02117647058823531, "half_kelly_profit": -0.02117647058823531, "running_fixed_profit": -3.0, "running_kelly_profit": -0.22920275802628742, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.11460137901314371, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:38.644781Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "USA 0.46 / Draw 0.28 / Paraguay 0.26; Betfair market close to model, no edge.", "recommendation_text": "Paraguay: back, back at 4.40, better than 3.92, half-kelly 2.1%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 5, "prediction_id": "97281880-c81f-4aee-85ee-2de23bb72177", "created_at": "2026-06-11T07:10:43.187619Z", "event_date": "2026-06-13", "team1": "Qatar", "team2": "Switzerland", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Qatar", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 16.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.14, "team1_agent_prob": 0.14, "draw_agent_prob": 0.21, "team2_agent_prob": 0.65, "team1_market_odds": 16.0, "draw_market_odds": 7.4, "team2_market_odds": 1.24, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-13", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08266666666666668, "kelly_profit": -0.08266666666666668, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04133333333333334, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04133333333333334, "running_fixed_profit": -4.0, "running_kelly_profit": -0.3118694246929541, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.15593471234647704, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:38.561028Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Pre-odds baseline: Qatar 0.14 / draw 0.21 / Switzerland 0.65 (B). Betfair market made Switzerland much shorter; targeted re-check found no specific missed team-news fact, so baseline retained.", "recommendation_text": "Qatar: strong back, back at 16.00, better than 7.29, half-kelly 4.1%; Draw: strong back, back at 7.40, better than 4.86, half-kelly 4.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 6, "prediction_id": "1898ef66-1df7-45b0-99c3-f1868ff5c0e4", "created_at": "2026-06-11T07:23:07.036653Z", "event_date": "2026-06-13", "team1": "Brazil", "team2": "Morocco", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Morocco", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 5.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.29, "team1_agent_prob": 0.45, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.29, "team1_market_odds": 1.73, "draw_market_odds": 3.95, "team2_market_odds": 5.8, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-13", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.14208333333333334, "kelly_profit": -0.14208333333333334, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.07104166666666667, "half_kelly_profit": -0.07104166666666667, "running_fixed_profit": -5.0, "running_kelly_profit": -0.45395275802628743, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.22697637901314371, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:38.474412Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Brazil vs Morocco 2026-06-13: baseline Brazil 0.45 draw 0.26 Morocco 0.29; market disagreement creates Morocco value but confidence B.", "recommendation_text": "Morocco: strong back, back at 5.80, better than 3.52, half-kelly 7.1%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 7, "prediction_id": "455e3904-6a90-4489-bdae-8e6265be7f89", "created_at": "2026-06-11T07:34:34.719778Z", "event_date": "2026-06-14", "team1": "Haiti", "team2": "Scotland", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Haiti", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 6.4, "selected_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_agent_prob": 0.2, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.57, "team1_market_odds": 6.4, "draw_market_odds": 4.4, "team2_market_odds": 1.61, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-14", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.05185185185185185, "kelly_profit": -0.05185185185185185, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.025925925925925925, "half_kelly_profit": -0.025925925925925925, "running_fixed_profit": -6.0, "running_kelly_profit": -0.5058046098781392, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.2529023049390696, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:39.073467Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Scotland clear favourite in model, but Betfair price creates ledger-qualified Haiti underdog value recommendation.", "recommendation_text": "Haiti: back, back at 6.40, better than 5.10, half-kelly 2.6%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 8, "prediction_id": "cec6a805-bce6-49b1-b059-e7475a2b66d5", "created_at": "2026-06-11T07:49:53.437468Z", "event_date": "2026-06-14", "team1": "Australia", "team2": "Türkiye", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Australia", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 5.7, "selected_agent_prob": 0.28, "team1_agent_prob": 0.28, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.46, "team1_market_odds": 5.7, "draw_market_odds": 3.9, "team2_market_odds": 1.75, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-14", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 4.7, "kelly_fraction": 0.12680851063829793, "kelly_profit": 0.5960000000000003, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.06340425531914896, "half_kelly_profit": 0.29800000000000015, "running_fixed_profit": -1.2999999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.09019539012186106, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.04509769506093053, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:38.990040Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Australia vs Türkiye 2026-06-14 H2H: Türkiye slight quality edge, neutral venue; Betfair market materially stronger on Türkiye than model after one team-news recheck.", "recommendation_text": "Australia: strong back, back at 5.70, better than 3.64, half-kelly 6.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 9, "prediction_id": "6b1ed0f4-49d1-4e81-9165-e4698c744980", "created_at": "2026-06-11T08:04:22.857620Z", "event_date": "2026-06-14", "team1": "Germany", "team2": "Curacao", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 23.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.11, "team1_agent_prob": 0.82, "draw_agent_prob": 0.11, "team2_agent_prob": 0.07, "team1_market_odds": 1.06, "draw_market_odds": 23.0, "team2_market_odds": 50.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 7, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-14", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.06954545454545454, "kelly_profit": -0.06954545454545454, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.03477272727272727, "half_kelly_profit": -0.03477272727272727, "running_fixed_profit": -2.3, "running_kelly_profit": 0.020649935576406528, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.010324967788203264, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:38.900570Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Germany 0.82 / draw 0.11 / Curacao 0.07; baseline kept after Betfair disagreement re-check found no missed team-news fact.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 23.00, better than 9.27, half-kelly 3.5%; Curacao: strong back, back at 50.00, better than 14.57, half-kelly 2.6%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 10, "prediction_id": "7643dc1a-7e02-4efb-93d9-df0f4af54f1c", "created_at": "2026-06-11T08:17:20.199735Z", "event_date": "2026-06-14", "team1": "Netherlands", "team2": "Japan", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Japan", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 3.85, "selected_agent_prob": 0.28, "team1_agent_prob": 0.47, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.28, "team1_market_odds": 2.12, "draw_market_odds": 3.65, "team2_market_odds": 3.85, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-14", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.027368421052631643, "kelly_profit": -0.027368421052631643, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.013684210526315821, "half_kelly_profit": -0.013684210526315821, "running_fixed_profit": -3.3, "running_kelly_profit": -0.006718485476225115, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.0033592427381125573, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:38.815920Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Baseline before odds: Netherlands 0.47 / draw 0.25 / Japan 0.28 (confidence B). Betfair market close to model; no material edge.", "recommendation_text": "Japan: back, back at 3.85, better than 3.64, half-kelly 1.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 11, "prediction_id": "f5c5dcec-2e38-42bb-a0d3-d20350622179", "created_at": "2026-06-11T08:28:23.607116Z", "event_date": "2026-06-14", "team1": "Ivory Coast", "team2": "Ecuador", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Ecuador", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 2.54, "selected_agent_prob": 0.46, "team1_agent_prob": 0.27, "draw_agent_prob": 0.27, "team2_agent_prob": 0.46, "team1_market_odds": 3.75, "draw_market_odds": 2.9, "team2_market_odds": 2.54, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-14", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.10935064935064935, "kelly_profit": -0.10935064935064935, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.054675324675324675, "half_kelly_profit": -0.054675324675324675, "running_fixed_profit": -4.3, "running_kelly_profit": -0.11606913482687446, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.05803456741343723, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-15T07:44:38.727274Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Ecuador slight neutral-site edge; Betfair 2.54 clears value gate", "recommendation_text": "Ecuador: strong back, back at 2.54, better than 2.22, half-kelly 5.5%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 12, "prediction_id": "62c01087-3b76-4be6-b868-83f7a4c6ee2c", "created_at": "2026-06-11T08:38:37.830758Z", "event_date": "2026-06-15", "team1": "Sweden", "team2": "Tunisia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Tunisia", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 4.6, "selected_agent_prob": 0.4, "team1_agent_prob": 0.34, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.4, "team1_market_odds": 1.97, "draw_market_odds": 3.5, "team2_market_odds": 4.6, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 5, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-15", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.23333333333333334, "kelly_profit": -0.23333333333333334, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.11666666666666667, "half_kelly_profit": -0.11666666666666667, "running_fixed_profit": -5.3, "running_kelly_profit": -0.3494024681602078, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.1747012340801039, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-16T18:46:49.485874Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Sweden vs Tunisia 2026-06-15 H2H: confidence C, baseline revised only for post-freeze team-news recheck; Tunisia model edge vs Betfair but high data risk.", "recommendation_text": "Tunisia: strong back, back at 4.60, better than 2.55, half-kelly 11.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 13, "prediction_id": "2cdc8aa5-d8cd-4cc7-bb06-15d4f557ba1e", "created_at": "2026-06-11T09:01:45.159673Z", "event_date": "2026-06-15", "team1": "Spain", "team2": "Cape Verde", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 15.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.18, "team1_agent_prob": 0.7, "draw_agent_prob": 0.18, "team2_agent_prob": 0.12, "team1_market_odds": 1.1, "draw_market_odds": 15.0, "team2_market_odds": 29.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-15", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 14.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.12142857142857143, "kelly_profit": 1.7, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.060714285714285714, "half_kelly_profit": 0.85, "running_fixed_profit": 8.7, "running_kelly_profit": 1.3505975318397923, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.6752987659198961, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-16T18:46:49.402876Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Spain vs Cape Verde World Cup Group H: Spain strong favourite on independent baseline; market much shorter, so no Spain bet; draw/Cape Verde prices show theoretical disagreement but model still grades Spain most likely.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 15.00, better than 5.67, half-kelly 6.1%; Cape Verde: strong back, back at 29.00, better than 8.50, half-kelly 4.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 14, "prediction_id": "b2a3ba01-ae61-47ef-9951-17dc3690f544", "created_at": "2026-06-11T09:13:00.699016Z", "event_date": "2026-06-15", "team1": "Belgium", "team2": "Egypt", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Egypt", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 6.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.21, "team1_agent_prob": 0.56, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.21, "team1_market_odds": 1.69, "draw_market_odds": 4.0, "team2_market_odds": 6.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-15", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.052000000000000005, "kelly_profit": -0.052000000000000005, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.026000000000000002, "half_kelly_profit": -0.026000000000000002, "running_fixed_profit": 7.699999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 1.2985975318397922, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.6492987659198961, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-16T18:46:49.321119Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Belgium clear-edge neutral baseline; market broadly aligned; no bet.", "recommendation_text": "Egypt: back, back at 6.00, better than 4.86, half-kelly 2.6%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 15, "prediction_id": "f4352a0c-f330-4b18-b871-d457d31c3e56", "created_at": "2026-06-11T09:29:55.964226Z", "event_date": "2026-06-15", "team1": "Saudi Arabia", "team2": "Uruguay", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Saudi Arabia", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 8.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.19, "team1_agent_prob": 0.19, "draw_agent_prob": 0.22, "team2_agent_prob": 0.59, "team1_market_odds": 8.8, "draw_market_odds": 4.7, "team2_market_odds": 1.47, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-15", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08615384615384616, "kelly_profit": -0.08615384615384616, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04307692307692308, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04307692307692308, "running_fixed_profit": 6.699999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 1.212443685685946, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.606221842842973, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-16T18:46:49.235495Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Uruguay quality edge at neutral Miami venue; baseline close enough to Betfair to produce no actionable edge.", "recommendation_text": "Saudi Arabia: strong back, back at 8.80, better than 5.37, half-kelly 4.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 16, "prediction_id": "efaa2f1e-4589-495a-8315-c3f977202f5c", "created_at": "2026-06-11T09:40:23.864649Z", "event_date": "2026-06-16", "team1": "Iran", "team2": "New Zealand", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Iran", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 1.87, "selected_agent_prob": 0.58, "team1_agent_prob": 0.58, "draw_agent_prob": 0.22, "team2_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_market_odds": 1.87, "draw_market_odds": 3.6, "team2_market_odds": 5.2, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-16", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.09724137931034482, "kelly_profit": -0.09724137931034482, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04862068965517241, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04862068965517241, "running_fixed_profit": 5.699999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 1.1152023063756011, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.5576011531878006, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-16T18:46:49.569409Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Iran vs New Zealand 2026-06-16 H2H: Iran 0.58 / Draw 0.22 / New Zealand 0.20; Betfair exchange shows no model edge above gates.", "recommendation_text": "Iran: back, back at 1.87, better than 1.76, half-kelly 4.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 17, "prediction_id": "d7041590-8289-4b43-a836-c781a1136797", "created_at": "2026-06-11T09:51:36.998689Z", "event_date": "2026-06-16", "team1": "France", "team2": "Senegal", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Senegal", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 8.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.18, "team1_agent_prob": 0.61, "draw_agent_prob": 0.21, "team2_agent_prob": 0.18, "team1_market_odds": 1.49, "draw_market_odds": 4.6, "team2_market_odds": 8.2, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-16", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.06611111111111108, "kelly_profit": -0.06611111111111108, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.03305555555555554, "half_kelly_profit": -0.03305555555555554, "running_fixed_profit": 4.699999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 1.0490911952644901, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.5245455976322451, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:08.803891Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "France vs Senegal 2026-06-16 H2H: France 0.61 / draw 0.21 / Senegal 0.18, confidence B", "recommendation_text": "Senegal: strong back, back at 8.20, better than 5.67, half-kelly 3.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 18, "prediction_id": "10caf426-1926-41a1-9dfd-4d58eb05d432", "created_at": "2026-06-11T10:03:24.814862Z", "event_date": "2026-06-16", "team1": "Iraq", "team2": "Norway", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Iraq", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 17.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.16, "team1_agent_prob": 0.16, "draw_agent_prob": 0.21, "team2_agent_prob": 0.63, "team1_market_odds": 17.0, "draw_market_odds": 7.6, "team2_market_odds": 1.22, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 4, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-16", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.10750000000000001, "kelly_profit": -0.10750000000000001, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.053750000000000006, "half_kelly_profit": -0.053750000000000006, "running_fixed_profit": 3.6999999999999993, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9415911952644901, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.47079559763224504, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:08.974858Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Iraq vs Norway H2H: Norway strong favourite on squad/UEFA qualifying strength, but baseline keeps more Iraq/draw resistance than Betfair; confidence B due lineup/availability gaps.", "recommendation_text": "Iraq: strong back, back at 17.00, better than 6.38, half-kelly 5.4%; Draw: strong back, back at 7.60, better than 4.86, half-kelly 4.5%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 19, "prediction_id": "961b55b4-6faa-469d-98a3-379222a51745", "created_at": "2026-06-11T10:15:35.287362Z", "event_date": "2026-06-17", "team1": "Argentina", "team2": "Algeria", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Algeria", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 10.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_agent_prob": 0.58, "draw_agent_prob": 0.22, "team2_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_market_odds": 1.43, "draw_market_odds": 4.9, "team2_market_odds": 10.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-17", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.1111111111111111, "kelly_profit": -0.1111111111111111, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.05555555555555555, "half_kelly_profit": -0.05555555555555555, "running_fixed_profit": 2.6999999999999993, "running_kelly_profit": 0.830480084153379, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4152400420766895, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:09.143792Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Argentina 0.58 / Draw 0.22 / Algeria 0.20; neutral Group J opener, baseline frozen before Betfair odds; disagreement re-check found no market-correcting missed fact.", "recommendation_text": "Algeria: strong back, back at 10.00, better than 5.10, half-kelly 5.6%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 20, "prediction_id": "82ad1458-afe0-4a4a-a198-258a58ef22bb", "created_at": "2026-06-11T10:26:04.194148Z", "event_date": "2026-06-17", "team1": "Austria", "team2": "Jordan", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 6.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_agent_prob": 0.68, "draw_agent_prob": 0.2, "team2_agent_prob": 0.12, "team1_market_odds": 1.35, "draw_market_odds": 6.0, "team2_market_odds": 10.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-17", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.039999999999999994, "kelly_profit": -0.039999999999999994, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.019999999999999997, "half_kelly_profit": -0.019999999999999997, "running_fixed_profit": 1.6999999999999993, "running_kelly_profit": 0.790480084153379, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.3952400420766895, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:09.310571Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Austria strong favourite on scorecard gap and Jordan defensive volatility; baseline kept after Betfair comparison; no gate-qualified bet.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: back, back at 6.00, better than 5.10, half-kelly 2.0%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 21, "prediction_id": "ab814814-1b1c-4aa1-92c8-2d24baa449c3", "created_at": "2026-06-11T10:38:04.641207Z", "event_date": "2026-06-17", "team1": "Portugal", "team2": "DR Congo", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 6.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_agent_prob": 0.65, "draw_agent_prob": 0.2, "team2_agent_prob": 0.15, "team1_market_odds": 1.32, "draw_market_odds": 6.0, "team2_market_odds": 12.5, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-17", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 5.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.039999999999999994, "kelly_profit": 0.19999999999999996, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.019999999999999997, "half_kelly_profit": 0.09999999999999998, "running_fixed_profit": 6.699999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 0.990480084153379, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4952400420766895, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:10.479874Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Portugal strong favourite on independent baseline, but Betfair is even stronger; no baseline-to-market averaging after one re-check.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: back, back at 6.00, better than 5.10, half-kelly 2.0%; DR Congo: strong back, back at 12.50, better than 6.80, half-kelly 3.8%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 22, "prediction_id": "f5e7841c-c607-4601-b133-581bbd041d23", "created_at": "2026-06-11T10:59:04.376143Z", "event_date": "2026-06-17", "team1": "Ghana", "team2": "Panama", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "no bet", "selected_outcome": null, "selected_odds": null, "selected_agent_prob": null, "team1_agent_prob": 0.45, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.29, "team1_market_odds": 2.2, "draw_market_odds": 3.55, "team2_market_odds": 3.7, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-17", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 0, "fixed_stake": 0.0, "fixed_profit": 0.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.0, "kelly_profit": 0.0, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0, "half_kelly_profit": 0.0, "running_fixed_profit": 6.699999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 0.990480084153379, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4952400420766895, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:10.144150Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Ghana slight full-strength quality edge at neutral Toronto; market broadly aligned, no qualifying edge.", "recommendation_text": "No bet: no selection clears edge, threshold, and Kelly gates.", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 23, "prediction_id": "227fdf3f-74b9-46a0-a5e0-7d2081004f1a", "created_at": "2026-06-15T08:14:09.317704Z", "event_date": "2026-06-17", "team1": "England", "team2": "Croatia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Croatia", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 5.4, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.52, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_market_odds": 1.78, "draw_market_odds": 3.85, "team2_market_odds": 5.4, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 4, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-17", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.05500000000000004, "kelly_profit": -0.05500000000000004, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.02750000000000002, "half_kelly_profit": -0.02750000000000002, "running_fixed_profit": 5.699999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9354800841533789, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.46774004207668946, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "instruction_hash_short": "043fa3fcfd52", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:09.978196Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "England remains model favourite, but Croatia is the ledger value recommendation at Betfair 5.40.", "recommendation_text": "Croatia: back, back at 5.40, better than 4.43, half-kelly 2.8%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 24, "prediction_id": "0a7bc877-cf64-4744-999a-fbeaf87f8e1b", "created_at": "2026-06-17T08:06:50.045497Z", "event_date": "2026-06-18", "team1": "Uzbekistan", "team2": "Colombia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Uzbekistan", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 10.5, "selected_agent_prob": 0.19, "team1_agent_prob": 0.19, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.58, "team1_market_odds": 10.5, "draw_market_odds": 5.1, "team2_market_odds": 1.4, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 3, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-18", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.10473684210526314, "kelly_profit": -0.10473684210526314, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.05236842105263157, "half_kelly_profit": -0.05236842105263157, "running_fixed_profit": 4.699999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 0.8307432420481158, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4153716210240579, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": "043fa3fcfd52bc944eb2700a0974400d18a3403a170fc5ad671d7e6d16ccecb1", "prompt_changed": 1, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:11.323494Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Daily Betfair refresh: Colombia clear favourite, but Uzbekistan is priced far above the independent baseline; small-stake high-variance value.", "recommendation_text": "Uzbekistan: strong back, back at 10.50, better than 5.37, half-kelly 5.2%; Draw: back, back at 5.10, better than 4.43, half-kelly 2.1%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": "prompts/diffs/024-2026-06-18-043fa3fcfd52-to-207433de91f8/" }, { "sequence": 25, "prediction_id": "74b5c728-a3f0-40e1-8dc5-3ec4b7ec8e9e", "created_at": "2026-06-17T21:55:28.677284Z", "event_date": "2026-06-18", "team1": "Czechia", "team2": "South Africa", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Czechia", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 1.86, "selected_agent_prob": 0.62, "team1_agent_prob": 0.62, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.15, "team1_market_odds": 1.86, "draw_market_odds": 3.85, "team2_market_odds": 4.8, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-18", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.17813953488372092, "kelly_profit": -0.17813953488372092, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.08906976744186046, "half_kelly_profit": -0.08906976744186046, "running_fixed_profit": 3.6999999999999993, "running_kelly_profit": 0.6526037071643949, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.32630185358219743, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:10.819900Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Czechia narrow edge from stronger baseline and South Africa suspensions; Betfair gaps below action threshold.", "recommendation_text": "Czechia: strong back, back at 1.86, better than 1.65, half-kelly 8.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 26, "prediction_id": "483b822b-3d6d-4a54-bba4-867adc394dfc", "created_at": "2026-06-17T22:09:27.600042Z", "event_date": "2026-06-18", "team1": "Switzerland", "team2": "Bosnia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Bosnia", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 7.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.19, "team1_agent_prob": 0.56, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.19, "team1_market_odds": 1.58, "draw_market_odds": 4.3, "team2_market_odds": 7.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 4, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-18", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.055000000000000014, "kelly_profit": -0.055000000000000014, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.027500000000000007, "half_kelly_profit": -0.027500000000000007, "running_fixed_profit": 2.6999999999999993, "running_kelly_profit": 0.5976037071643948, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.2988018535821974, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:10.985431Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Baseline: Switzerland 0.56 / draw 0.25 / Bosnia 0.19, confidence B. Neutral World Cup Group B match; Switzerland stronger but Bosnia compact/draw-prone.", "recommendation_text": "Bosnia: back, back at 7.00, better than 5.37, half-kelly 2.8%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 27, "prediction_id": "17be700e-7c4f-4dc3-a713-f412de84e498", "created_at": "2026-06-17T22:19:48.036370Z", "event_date": "2026-06-18", "team1": "Canada", "team2": "Qatar", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 6.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.26, "team1_agent_prob": 0.55, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.19, "team1_market_odds": 1.31, "draw_market_odds": 6.0, "team2_market_odds": 12.5, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 6, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-18", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.11200000000000002, "kelly_profit": -0.11200000000000002, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.05600000000000001, "half_kelly_profit": -0.05600000000000001, "running_fixed_profit": 1.6999999999999993, "running_kelly_profit": 0.4856037071643948, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.2428018535821974, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:10.650021Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Canada vs Qatar: host Canada clear but draw-prone favourite; no bet after Betfair comparison", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 6.00, better than 3.92, half-kelly 5.6%; Qatar: strong back, back at 12.50, better than 5.37, half-kelly 6.0%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 28, "prediction_id": "c336c323-fa83-4546-88a7-1837795e59a1", "created_at": "2026-06-17T22:29:38.036677Z", "event_date": "2026-06-19", "team1": "Mexico", "team2": "South Korea", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "South Korea", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 4.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.28, "team1_agent_prob": 0.45, "draw_agent_prob": 0.27, "team2_agent_prob": 0.28, "team1_market_odds": 2.12, "draw_market_odds": 3.4, "team2_market_odds": 4.2, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-19", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.05500000000000005, "kelly_profit": -0.05500000000000005, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.027500000000000024, "half_kelly_profit": -0.027500000000000024, "running_fixed_profit": 0.6999999999999993, "running_kelly_profit": 0.4306037071643948, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.2153018535821974, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:11.492630Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Mexico slight host edge tempered by Montes suspension and Quinones fitness doubt; market broadly aligned, no qualifying edge.", "recommendation_text": "South Korea: back, back at 4.20, better than 3.64, half-kelly 2.8%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 29, "prediction_id": "07429663-0f0b-4e25-91a2-8a507dbab34b", "created_at": "2026-06-17T22:42:35.263160Z", "event_date": "2026-06-19", "team1": "USA", "team2": "Australia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 4.6, "selected_agent_prob": 0.24, "team1_agent_prob": 0.62, "draw_agent_prob": 0.24, "team2_agent_prob": 0.14, "team1_market_odds": 1.65, "draw_market_odds": 4.6, "team2_market_odds": 5.6, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-19", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.028888888888888856, "kelly_profit": -0.028888888888888856, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.014444444444444428, "half_kelly_profit": -0.014444444444444428, "running_fixed_profit": -0.3000000000000007, "running_kelly_profit": 0.4017148182755059, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.20085740913775296, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:11.827942Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "USA home/host edge and attacking ceiling make them favourites, but Australia resilience and Pulisic fitness keep stake discipline.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: back, back at 4.60, better than 4.25, half-kelly 1.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 30, "prediction_id": "672c95ac-604c-4531-be17-9391213fdc41", "created_at": "2026-06-17T22:52:46.921838Z", "event_date": "2026-06-19", "team1": "Scotland", "team2": "Morocco", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Scotland", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 5.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.25, "team1_agent_prob": 0.25, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.49, "team1_market_odds": 5.8, "draw_market_odds": 3.75, "team2_market_odds": 1.77, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-19", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.09375, "kelly_profit": -0.09375, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.046875, "half_kelly_profit": -0.046875, "running_fixed_profit": -1.3000000000000007, "running_kelly_profit": 0.3079648182755059, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.15398240913775296, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 1, "post_mortem_at": "2026-06-20T19:41:11.659556Z", "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-post-mortem", "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "c14b2a75434fe0d68aad6b0246c5f3f75869a96433476ab27415a9837197851d", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "c14b2a75434f", "summary": "Morocco most likely on football baseline, but Betfair price creates a ledger value recommendation on Scotland.", "recommendation_text": "Scotland: strong back, back at 5.80, better than 4.08, half-kelly 4.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 31, "prediction_id": "fdc7f429-3b58-491a-8387-a0d67f411666", "created_at": "2026-06-20T19:33:44.557561Z", "event_date": "2026-06-20", "team1": "Germany", "team2": "Ivory Coast", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 5.1, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.52, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.25, "team1_market_odds": 1.47, "draw_market_odds": 5.1, "team2_market_odds": 7.6, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-20", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.0421951219512195, "kelly_profit": -0.0421951219512195, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.02109756097560975, "half_kelly_profit": -0.02109756097560975, "running_fixed_profit": -2.3000000000000007, "running_kelly_profit": 0.26576969632428643, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.13288484816214322, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Germany 0.52 / draw 0.23 / Ivory Coast 0.25; Betfair market favours Germany more heavily; no post-odds missed-fact revision.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: back, back at 5.10, better than 4.43, half-kelly 2.1%; Ivory Coast: strong back, back at 7.60, better than 4.08, half-kelly 6.8%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 32, "prediction_id": "1fcbbf50-8de4-4233-bc6c-0a45b69aeacd", "created_at": "2026-06-20T08:03:50.156464Z", "event_date": "2026-06-21", "team1": "Uruguay", "team2": "Cape Verde", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 4.5, "selected_agent_prob": 0.28, "team1_agent_prob": 0.52, "draw_agent_prob": 0.28, "team2_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_market_odds": 1.48, "draw_market_odds": 4.5, "team2_market_odds": 9.6, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-21", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 3.5, "kelly_fraction": 0.07428571428571432, "kelly_profit": 0.2600000000000001, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.03714285714285716, "half_kelly_profit": 0.13000000000000006, "running_fixed_profit": 1.1999999999999993, "running_kelly_profit": 0.5257696963242866, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.2628848481621433, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "BACK Cape Verde: high-variance underdog value; local stats/scorecard show more resistance than market price implies.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 4.50, better than 3.64, half-kelly 3.7%; Cape Verde: strong back, back at 9.60, better than 5.10, half-kelly 5.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 33, "prediction_id": "2ec5d000-63be-48c1-98f2-32b2d5dd11b7", "created_at": "2026-06-20T19:47:21.745485Z", "event_date": "2026-06-21", "team1": "Ecuador", "team2": "Curacao", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 8.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.18, "team1_agent_prob": 0.71, "draw_agent_prob": 0.18, "team2_agent_prob": 0.11, "team1_market_odds": 1.19, "draw_market_odds": 8.8, "team2_market_odds": 21.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-21", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 7.800000000000001, "kelly_fraction": 0.07487179487179488, "kelly_profit": 0.5840000000000001, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.03743589743589744, "half_kelly_profit": 0.29200000000000004, "running_fixed_profit": 9.0, "running_kelly_profit": 1.1097696963242867, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.5548848481621433, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Anti-favourite value: Draw primary per ledger, Curacao secondary longshot; avoid Ecuador at 1.19.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 8.80, better than 5.67, half-kelly 3.7%; Curacao: strong back, back at 21.00, better than 9.27, half-kelly 3.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 34, "prediction_id": "4c979ad6-af89-45b4-8b12-3225dbdd204e", "created_at": "2026-06-20T19:58:50.479934Z", "event_date": "2026-06-21", "team1": "Tunisia", "team2": "Japan", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Tunisia", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 8.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.17, "team1_agent_prob": 0.17, "draw_agent_prob": 0.24, "team2_agent_prob": 0.59, "team1_market_odds": 8.0, "draw_market_odds": 4.5, "team2_market_odds": 1.52, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 4, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-21", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.051428571428571455, "kelly_profit": -0.051428571428571455, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.025714285714285728, "half_kelly_profit": -0.025714285714285728, "running_fixed_profit": 8.0, "running_kelly_profit": 1.0583411248957153, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.5291705624478577, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Japan are the clear but not dominant neutral-site favourite; Betfair prices are broadly aligned, so no bet.", "recommendation_text": "Tunisia: back, back at 8.00, better than 6.00, half-kelly 2.6%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 35, "prediction_id": "0502e04c-8ed0-4fe3-a522-1f11196dec04", "created_at": "2026-06-20T20:08:10.562695Z", "event_date": "2026-06-21", "team1": "Spain", "team2": "Saudi Arabia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 11.5, "selected_agent_prob": 0.22, "team1_agent_prob": 0.6, "draw_agent_prob": 0.22, "team2_agent_prob": 0.18, "team1_market_odds": 1.12, "draw_market_odds": 11.5, "team2_market_odds": 32.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 4, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-21", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.1457142857142857, "kelly_profit": -0.1457142857142857, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.07285714285714286, "half_kelly_profit": -0.07285714285714286, "running_fixed_profit": 7.0, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9126268391814296, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4563134195907148, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Spain strong favourite on team quality; model keeps more draw/Saudi resistance than Betfair because of Spain finishing/minutes risk and Saudi compact opener.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 11.50, better than 4.64, half-kelly 7.3%; Saudi Arabia: strong back, back at 32.00, better than 5.67, half-kelly 7.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 36, "prediction_id": "4877070f-10bc-4c6f-b4bd-e48f4f4453b5", "created_at": "2026-06-20T20:17:20.851836Z", "event_date": "2026-06-21", "team1": "Belgium", "team2": "Iran", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 4.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.58, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.19, "team1_market_odds": 1.48, "draw_market_odds": 4.8, "team2_market_odds": 8.4, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-21", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 3.8, "kelly_fraction": 0.027368421052631577, "kelly_profit": 0.10399999999999998, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.013684210526315788, "half_kelly_profit": 0.05199999999999999, "running_fixed_profit": 10.8, "running_kelly_profit": 1.0166268391814297, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.5083134195907149, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Belgium clear-quality favourite, but market shorter than model after one targeted team-news recheck; no bet.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: back, back at 4.80, better than 4.43, half-kelly 1.4%; Iran: strong back, back at 8.40, better than 5.37, half-kelly 4.0%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 37, "prediction_id": "74227586-df3f-458c-8250-599200480c98", "created_at": "2026-06-20T20:27:38.891355Z", "event_date": "2026-06-22", "team1": "New Zealand", "team2": "Egypt", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "New Zealand", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 6.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.21, "team1_agent_prob": 0.21, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.56, "team1_market_odds": 6.2, "draw_market_odds": 4.3, "team2_market_odds": 1.64, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 3, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-22", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.05807692307692308, "kelly_profit": -0.05807692307692308, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.02903846153846154, "half_kelly_profit": -0.02903846153846154, "running_fixed_profit": 9.8, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9585499161045066, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4792749580522533, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Egypt stronger baseline, but New Zealand at 6.20 clears edge/Kelly gates; value is upset price, not favourite strength.", "recommendation_text": "New Zealand: back, back at 6.20, better than 4.86, half-kelly 2.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 38, "prediction_id": "d2df7ed4-ef76-4ef3-8cd4-795a2296bac7", "created_at": "2026-06-20T20:38:31.339326Z", "event_date": "2026-06-22", "team1": "Argentina", "team2": "Austria", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "no bet", "selected_outcome": null, "selected_odds": null, "selected_agent_prob": null, "team1_agent_prob": 0.63, "draw_agent_prob": 0.21, "team2_agent_prob": 0.16, "team1_market_odds": 1.6, "draw_market_odds": 4.3, "team2_market_odds": 6.8, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-22", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 0, "fixed_stake": 0.0, "fixed_profit": 0.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.0, "kelly_profit": 0.0, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0, "half_kelly_profit": 0.0, "running_fixed_profit": 9.8, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9585499161045066, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4792749580522533, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Argentina 0.63 / Draw 0.21 / Austria 0.16; confidence B; no material Betfair disagreement, likely no-bet unless ledger gates say otherwise.", "recommendation_text": "No bet: no selection clears edge, threshold, and Kelly gates.", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 39, "prediction_id": "a0504447-17ba-4df0-a108-15ee3a3c1ee4", "created_at": "2026-06-20T20:49:25.320232Z", "event_date": "2026-06-22", "team1": "France", "team2": "Iraq", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 13.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.16, "team1_agent_prob": 0.75, "draw_agent_prob": 0.16, "team2_agent_prob": 0.09, "team1_market_odds": 1.11, "draw_market_odds": 13.0, "team2_market_odds": 36.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-22", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.09000000000000001, "kelly_profit": -0.09000000000000001, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.045000000000000005, "half_kelly_profit": -0.045000000000000005, "running_fixed_profit": 8.8, "running_kelly_profit": 0.8685499161045066, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4342749580522533, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "France elite-vs-Iraq mismatch; pre-odds baseline revised once for confirmed no-injury/full-squad team news; market still much higher on France, so no value on France.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 13.00, better than 6.38, half-kelly 4.5%; Iraq: strong back, back at 36.00, better than 11.33, half-kelly 3.2%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 40, "prediction_id": "94f532c3-c294-41bf-ad0f-0b3723bd6f7d", "created_at": "2026-06-20T08:03:52.084693Z", "event_date": "2026-06-23", "team1": "Norway", "team2": "Senegal", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Norway", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 2.38, "selected_agent_prob": 0.5, "team1_agent_prob": 0.5, "draw_agent_prob": 0.24, "team2_agent_prob": 0.26, "team1_market_odds": 2.38, "draw_market_odds": 3.6, "team2_market_odds": 3.25, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-23", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 1.38, "kelly_fraction": 0.13768115942028983, "kelly_profit": 0.18999999999999995, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.06884057971014491, "half_kelly_profit": 0.09499999999999997, "running_fixed_profit": 10.18, "running_kelly_profit": 1.0585499161045067, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.5292749580522533, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "BACK Norway: attack/form baseline supports favourite status; Betfair 2.38 above model fair 2.00.", "recommendation_text": "Norway: strong back, back at 2.38, better than 2.04, half-kelly 6.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 41, "prediction_id": "22a2412c-011b-4f2e-b63a-5df46d2172a7", "created_at": "2026-06-20T20:58:04.842453Z", "event_date": "2026-06-23", "team1": "Jordan", "team2": "Algeria", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Jordan", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 6.6, "selected_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_agent_prob": 0.2, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.57, "team1_market_odds": 6.6, "draw_market_odds": 4.3, "team2_market_odds": 1.61, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-23", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.05714285714285712, "kelly_profit": -0.05714285714285712, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.02857142857142856, "half_kelly_profit": -0.02857142857142856, "running_fixed_profit": 9.18, "running_kelly_profit": 1.0014070589616495, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.5007035294808247, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Baseline Algeria edge on team strength and tactical matchup; Betfair market shorter on Algeria, no bet.", "recommendation_text": "Jordan: back, back at 6.60, better than 5.10, half-kelly 2.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 42, "prediction_id": "d73fc10f-92e3-45c6-9e74-0b4e8525e89b", "created_at": "2026-06-20T21:08:50.847367Z", "event_date": "2026-06-23", "team1": "Portugal", "team2": "Uzbekistan", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 7.6, "selected_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_agent_prob": 0.68, "draw_agent_prob": 0.2, "team2_agent_prob": 0.12, "team1_market_odds": 1.22, "draw_market_odds": 7.6, "team2_market_odds": 18.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 5, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-23", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.0787878787878788, "kelly_profit": -0.0787878787878788, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0393939393939394, "half_kelly_profit": -0.0393939393939394, "running_fixed_profit": 8.18, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9226191801737706, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4613095900868853, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Portugal strong favourite but Betfair price shorter than model; no bet unless ledger gates identify value elsewhere.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 7.60, better than 5.10, half-kelly 3.9%; Uzbekistan: strong back, back at 18.00, better than 8.50, half-kelly 3.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 43, "prediction_id": "df11cb45-d691-4801-a2f6-ed156c8d0c7c", "created_at": "2026-06-20T21:16:49.694494Z", "event_date": "2026-06-23", "team1": "England", "team2": "Ghana", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 7.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.18, "team1_agent_prob": 0.7, "draw_agent_prob": 0.18, "team2_agent_prob": 0.12, "team1_market_odds": 1.24, "draw_market_odds": 7.2, "team2_market_odds": 15.5, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-23", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 6.2, "kelly_fraction": 0.047741935483870936, "kelly_profit": 0.2959999999999998, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.023870967741935468, "half_kelly_profit": 0.1479999999999999, "running_fixed_profit": 14.379999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 1.2186191801737705, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.6093095900868852, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "England clear favourite on scorecard strength and Ghana defensive/GK uncertainty, but Betfair price is shorter than model fair; no positive England edge.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: back, back at 7.20, better than 5.67, half-kelly 2.4%; Ghana: strong back, back at 15.50, better than 8.50, half-kelly 3.0%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 44, "prediction_id": "661214db-17f0-4162-8d58-cd973fd93ce8", "created_at": "2026-06-20T21:28:48.725291Z", "event_date": "2026-06-23", "team1": "Panama", "team2": "Croatia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Panama", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 7.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.24, "team1_agent_prob": 0.24, "draw_agent_prob": 0.24, "team2_agent_prob": 0.52, "team1_market_odds": 7.2, "draw_market_odds": 4.2, "team2_market_odds": 1.59, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-23", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.11741935483870967, "kelly_profit": -0.11741935483870967, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.05870967741935484, "half_kelly_profit": -0.05870967741935484, "running_fixed_profit": 13.379999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 1.1011998253350608, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.5505999126675304, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Croatia most likely, but Panama value edge after odds-free baseline and Betfair comparison.", "recommendation_text": "Panama: strong back, back at 7.20, better than 4.25, half-kelly 5.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 45, "prediction_id": "31bce57b-3db4-49fa-9bb4-bc4d803ed1e7", "created_at": "2026-06-20T21:36:48.180178Z", "event_date": "2026-06-24", "team1": "Colombia", "team2": "DR Congo", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "DR Congo", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 7.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.54, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_market_odds": 1.55, "draw_market_odds": 4.3, "team2_market_odds": 7.8, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-24", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.11676470588235295, "kelly_profit": -0.11676470588235295, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.058382352941176476, "half_kelly_profit": -0.058382352941176476, "running_fixed_profit": 12.379999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9844351194527078, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4922175597263539, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Colombia 0.54 / Draw 0.23 / DR Congo 0.23 pre-odds baseline; Betfair market shorter Colombia, model no bet/value only on DR Congo if ledger gates pass; confidence B.", "recommendation_text": "DR Congo: strong back, back at 7.80, better than 4.43, half-kelly 5.8%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 46, "prediction_id": "beee24d9-5c3f-4a91-9a0d-99927269413b", "created_at": "2026-06-20T21:47:28.162002Z", "event_date": "2026-06-24", "team1": "Bosnia", "team2": "Qatar", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Qatar", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 7.6, "selected_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_agent_prob": 0.58, "draw_agent_prob": 0.22, "team2_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_market_odds": 1.49, "draw_market_odds": 5.0, "team2_market_odds": 7.6, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-24", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.0787878787878788, "kelly_profit": -0.0787878787878788, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0393939393939394, "half_kelly_profit": -0.0393939393939394, "running_fixed_profit": 11.379999999999999, "running_kelly_profit": 0.905647240664829, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4528236203324145, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Bosnia 0.58 / Draw 0.22 / Qatar 0.20; ledger recommends Qatar value at Betfair 7.60, min 5.10.", "recommendation_text": "Qatar: strong back, back at 7.60, better than 5.10, half-kelly 3.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 47, "prediction_id": "f2562414-51c3-4a48-9d6b-3687fcbd853b", "created_at": "2026-06-20T21:59:39.282702Z", "event_date": "2026-06-24", "team1": "Switzerland", "team2": "Canada", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Switzerland", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 2.56, "selected_agent_prob": 0.44, "team1_agent_prob": 0.44, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.3, "team1_market_odds": 2.56, "draw_market_odds": 3.15, "team2_market_odds": 3.35, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-24", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 1.56, "kelly_fraction": 0.081025641025641, "kelly_profit": 0.12639999999999996, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0405128205128205, "half_kelly_profit": 0.06319999999999998, "running_fixed_profit": 12.94, "running_kelly_profit": 1.032047240664829, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.5160236203324144, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Switzerland 0.44 / Draw 0.26 / Canada 0.30; Betfair price creates a small Switzerland back recommendation.", "recommendation_text": "Switzerland: back, back at 2.56, better than 2.32, half-kelly 4.1%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 48, "prediction_id": "612f8b1a-24a2-4413-b9b3-e98c1b8541f2", "created_at": "2026-06-20T22:08:43.687283Z", "event_date": "2026-06-24", "team1": "Scotland", "team2": "Brazil", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Scotland", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 8.6, "selected_agent_prob": 0.16, "team1_agent_prob": 0.16, "draw_agent_prob": 0.21, "team2_agent_prob": 0.63, "team1_market_odds": 8.6, "draw_market_odds": 5.5, "team2_market_odds": 1.4, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 3, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-24", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.049473684210526316, "kelly_profit": -0.049473684210526316, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.024736842105263158, "half_kelly_profit": -0.024736842105263158, "running_fixed_profit": 11.94, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9825735564543026, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4912867782271513, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Brazil 0.63 / Draw 0.21 / Scotland 0.16 after odds-free baseline; Betfair market close, no bet.", "recommendation_text": "Scotland: back, back at 8.60, better than 6.38, half-kelly 2.5%; Draw: back, back at 5.50, better than 4.86, half-kelly 1.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 49, "prediction_id": "1ad213b1-5c24-476d-8321-7e96448125e1", "created_at": "2026-06-20T22:18:50.520334Z", "event_date": "2026-06-24", "team1": "Morocco", "team2": "Haiti", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 7.6, "selected_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_agent_prob": 0.68, "draw_agent_prob": 0.2, "team2_agent_prob": 0.12, "team1_market_odds": 1.21, "draw_market_odds": 7.6, "team2_market_odds": 19.5, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 4, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-24", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.0787878787878788, "kelly_profit": -0.0787878787878788, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0393939393939394, "half_kelly_profit": -0.0393939393939394, "running_fixed_profit": 10.94, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9037856776664237, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.45189283883321185, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Morocco remain the likely winner, but Betfair prices Morocco far shorter than the model; ledger recommends Draw as primary value and also flags Haiti value.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 7.60, better than 5.10, half-kelly 3.9%; Haiti: strong back, back at 19.50, better than 8.50, half-kelly 3.6%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 50, "prediction_id": "e34c0374-c1fa-4022-8d4f-36f6d4113766", "created_at": "2026-06-25T08:10:47.318055Z", "event_date": "2026-06-25", "team1": "Japan", "team2": "Sweden", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Sweden", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 4.7, "selected_agent_prob": 0.3, "team1_agent_prob": 0.45, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.3, "team1_market_odds": 1.92, "draw_market_odds": 3.7, "team2_market_odds": 4.7, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-25", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.11081081081081084, "kelly_profit": -0.11081081081081084, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.05540540540540542, "half_kelly_profit": -0.05540540540540542, "running_fixed_profit": 9.94, "running_kelly_profit": 0.7929748668556129, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.39648743342780646, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Japan 0.45 / Draw 0.25 / Sweden 0.30; Betfair market makes Japan shorter, Sweden the model edge; no disagreement-protocol revision.", "recommendation_text": "Sweden: strong back, back at 4.70, better than 3.40, half-kelly 5.5%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 51, "prediction_id": "35088508-ef07-4485-98ac-38b6cb5e4e72", "created_at": "2026-06-25T08:35:55.691426Z", "event_date": "2026-06-25", "team1": "Curacao", "team2": "Ivory Coast", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Curacao", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 20.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.12, "team1_agent_prob": 0.12, "draw_agent_prob": 0.17, "team2_agent_prob": 0.71, "team1_market_odds": 20.0, "draw_market_odds": 8.8, "team2_market_odds": 1.19, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-25", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.07368421052631578, "kelly_profit": -0.07368421052631578, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.03684210526315789, "half_kelly_profit": -0.03684210526315789, "running_fixed_profit": 8.94, "running_kelly_profit": 0.7192906563292971, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.35964532816464856, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Ivory Coast clear favourite; model keeps no bet unless Betfair edge gate passes after revised group-state adjustment.", "recommendation_text": "Curacao: strong back, back at 20.00, better than 8.50, half-kelly 3.7%; Draw: strong back, back at 8.80, better than 6.00, half-kelly 3.2%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 52, "prediction_id": "de0ba098-6d26-49b8-9a58-207eb9379396", "created_at": "2026-06-25T08:46:08.595385Z", "event_date": "2026-06-25", "team1": "Ecuador", "team2": "Germany", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Ecuador", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 5.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.22, "team1_agent_prob": 0.22, "draw_agent_prob": 0.22, "team2_agent_prob": 0.56, "team1_market_odds": 5.8, "draw_market_odds": 5.2, "team2_market_odds": 1.56, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-25", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 4.8, "kelly_fraction": 0.05750000000000001, "kelly_profit": 0.276, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.028750000000000005, "half_kelly_profit": 0.138, "running_fixed_profit": 13.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9952906563292971, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.49764532816464857, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Germany preferred but no bet: model keeps Ecuador/draw resistance higher than Betfair enough to avoid backing Germany; no outcome clears edge/Kelly gates.", "recommendation_text": "Ecuador: back, back at 5.80, better than 4.64, half-kelly 2.9%; Draw: back, back at 5.20, better than 4.64, half-kelly 1.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 53, "prediction_id": "5db6fba7-8f0f-43ed-8711-40672f0fa8be", "created_at": "2026-06-25T08:57:16.467111Z", "event_date": "2026-06-25", "team1": "Tunisia", "team2": "Netherlands", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Tunisia", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 34.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.1, "team1_agent_prob": 0.1, "draw_agent_prob": 0.2, "team2_agent_prob": 0.7, "team1_market_odds": 34.0, "draw_market_odds": 12.0, "team2_market_odds": 1.12, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 3, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-25", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.07272727272727274, "kelly_profit": -0.07272727272727274, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.03636363636363637, "half_kelly_profit": -0.03636363636363637, "running_fixed_profit": 12.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.9225633836020244, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.4612816918010122, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Netherlands strong favourite on team quality, form and stakes; no bet after Betfair prices imply an even higher Dutch win probability and availability uncertainty remains.", "recommendation_text": "Tunisia: strong back, back at 34.00, better than 10.20, half-kelly 3.6%; Draw: strong back, back at 12.00, better than 5.10, half-kelly 6.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 54, "prediction_id": "91f338f2-4cb4-4686-9cb5-77ad7251b976", "created_at": "2026-06-25T09:12:14.164980Z", "event_date": "2026-06-26", "team1": "Paraguay", "team2": "Australia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Australia", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 4.3, "selected_agent_prob": 0.43, "team1_agent_prob": 0.31, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.43, "team1_market_odds": 2.84, "draw_market_odds": 2.36, "team2_market_odds": 4.3, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-26", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.2572727272727272, "kelly_profit": -0.2572727272727272, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.1286363636363636, "half_kelly_profit": -0.1286363636363636, "running_fixed_profit": 11.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.6652906563292972, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.3326453281646486, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Pre-odds baseline keeps Australia narrowly ahead on neutral-site matchup, but Betfair prices create large model-market disagreement; no late missed fact found in one re-check.", "recommendation_text": "Australia: strong back, back at 4.30, better than 2.37, half-kelly 12.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 55, "prediction_id": "8b0a9918-a30a-4bab-b306-b330d18e7aaa", "created_at": "2026-06-25T09:22:13.038879Z", "event_date": "2026-06-26", "team1": "Türkiye", "team2": "USA", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "no bet", "selected_outcome": null, "selected_odds": null, "selected_agent_prob": null, "team1_agent_prob": 0.23, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.52, "team1_market_odds": 3.95, "draw_market_odds": 4.3, "team2_market_odds": 1.93, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-26", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 0, "fixed_stake": 0.0, "fixed_profit": 0.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.0, "kelly_profit": 0.0, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0, "half_kelly_profit": 0.0, "running_fixed_profit": 11.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.6652906563292972, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.3326453281646486, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "USA host-edge favourite but Betfair is almost aligned; no value edge.", "recommendation_text": "No bet: no selection clears edge, threshold, and Kelly gates.", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 56, "prediction_id": "cce65c74-6b8e-4bc1-9a2a-9307b06f3be9", "created_at": "2026-06-25T09:34:54.425238Z", "event_date": "2026-06-26", "team1": "Senegal", "team2": "Iraq", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 7.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.59, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.18, "team1_market_odds": 1.26, "draw_market_odds": 7.2, "team2_market_odds": 14.5, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 5, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-26", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.10580645161290325, "kelly_profit": -0.10580645161290325, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.052903225806451626, "half_kelly_profit": -0.052903225806451626, "running_fixed_profit": 10.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.5594842047163939, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.27974210235819696, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Senegal clear-strength favourite but Betfair is much shorter; baseline keeps draw/Iraq variance live due to Mendy absence, neutral venue, and group-state volatility.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 7.20, better than 4.43, half-kelly 5.3%; Iraq: strong back, back at 14.50, better than 5.67, half-kelly 6.0%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 57, "prediction_id": "a35c2af0-5e87-4321-abef-8cffe7a35135", "created_at": "2026-06-25T09:45:20.802624Z", "event_date": "2026-06-26", "team1": "Norway", "team2": "France", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Norway", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 5.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.28, "team1_agent_prob": 0.28, "draw_agent_prob": 0.24, "team2_agent_prob": 0.48, "team1_market_odds": 5.2, "draw_market_odds": 4.9, "team2_market_odds": 1.64, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 4, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-26", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.10857142857142861, "kelly_profit": -0.10857142857142861, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.054285714285714305, "half_kelly_profit": -0.054285714285714305, "running_fixed_profit": 9.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.45091277614496533, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.22545638807248267, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "France slight-to-clear neutral favourite; market underrates Norway unless rotation concern proves decisive; Ryerson doubt nudges France.", "recommendation_text": "Norway: strong back, back at 5.20, better than 3.64, half-kelly 5.4%; Draw: back, back at 4.90, better than 4.25, half-kelly 2.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 58, "prediction_id": "430cd290-2b87-48d2-84dd-e3640d24248e", "created_at": "2026-06-25T09:57:38.929986Z", "event_date": "2026-06-27", "team1": "Cape Verde", "team2": "Saudi Arabia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Cape Verde", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 2.64, "selected_agent_prob": 0.46, "team1_agent_prob": 0.46, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.29, "team1_market_odds": 2.64, "draw_market_odds": 3.55, "team2_market_odds": 2.9, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-27", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.13073170731707318, "kelly_profit": -0.13073170731707318, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.06536585365853659, "half_kelly_profit": -0.06536585365853659, "running_fixed_profit": 8.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.32018106882789216, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.16009053441394608, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Cape Verde slight pre-odds favourite on scorecard resilience and Saudi fragility; Betfair gaps below disagreement threshold.", "recommendation_text": "Cape Verde: strong back, back at 2.64, better than 2.22, half-kelly 6.5%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 59, "prediction_id": "d7055c2c-641f-425f-943e-16f7b3ce751d", "created_at": "2026-06-25T10:08:07.330698Z", "event_date": "2026-06-27", "team1": "Uruguay", "team2": "Spain", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Uruguay", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 7.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.17, "team1_agent_prob": 0.17, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.6, "team1_market_odds": 7.8, "draw_market_odds": 4.5, "team2_market_odds": 1.52, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-27", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.047941176470588265, "kelly_profit": -0.047941176470588265, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.023970588235294132, "half_kelly_profit": -0.023970588235294132, "running_fixed_profit": 7.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.2722398923573039, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.13611994617865195, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Spain most likely, but Betfair price creates Uruguay value edge", "recommendation_text": "Uruguay: back, back at 7.80, better than 6.00, half-kelly 2.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 60, "prediction_id": "36108a95-4069-4f51-9a86-75f66bc5b3cb", "created_at": "2026-06-25T10:16:41.304283Z", "event_date": "2026-06-27", "team1": "New Zealand", "team2": "Belgium", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "New Zealand", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 19.5, "selected_agent_prob": 0.13, "team1_agent_prob": 0.13, "draw_agent_prob": 0.2, "team2_agent_prob": 0.67, "team1_market_odds": 19.5, "draw_market_odds": 8.4, "team2_market_odds": 1.2, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 5, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-27", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08297297297297299, "kelly_profit": -0.08297297297297299, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04148648648648649, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04148648648648649, "running_fixed_profit": 6.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.1892669193843309, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.09463345969216545, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Belgium strong favourite on scorecard quality and tactical control; market shorter than model after Doku/team-news recheck; no model edge.", "recommendation_text": "New Zealand: strong back, back at 19.50, better than 7.85, half-kelly 4.1%; Draw: strong back, back at 8.40, better than 5.10, half-kelly 4.6%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 61, "prediction_id": "55f71b74-58c9-462e-9d89-39b7b7b478cf", "created_at": "2026-06-25T10:27:09.386224Z", "event_date": "2026-06-27", "team1": "Egypt", "team2": "Iran", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Iran", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 4.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.31, "team1_agent_prob": 0.41, "draw_agent_prob": 0.28, "team2_agent_prob": 0.31, "team1_market_odds": 2.56, "draw_market_odds": 2.74, "team2_market_odds": 4.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-27", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08, "kelly_profit": -0.08, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04, "running_fixed_profit": 5.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.1092669193843309, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.05463345969216545, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Egypt slight scorecard edge, but Iran defensive/draw profile and transition route keep the 1X2 tight; no pre-ledger market revision.", "recommendation_text": "Iran: strong back, back at 4.00, better than 3.29, half-kelly 4.0%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 62, "prediction_id": "a59f100b-2e57-43a6-a3de-5b2ab8121530", "created_at": "2026-06-25T10:39:42.237895Z", "event_date": "2026-06-27", "team1": "Panama", "team2": "England", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Panama", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 20.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.14, "team1_agent_prob": 0.14, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.63, "team1_market_odds": 20.0, "draw_market_odds": 8.4, "team2_market_odds": 1.19, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-27", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.09473684210526317, "kelly_profit": -0.09473684210526317, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04736842105263159, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04736842105263159, "running_fixed_profit": 4.739999999999998, "running_kelly_profit": 0.01453007727906773, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.007265038639533865, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Panama vs England 2026-06-27: model keeps England favoured but below Betfair after availability/compact-block risks; value sits with Panama price, high risk.", "recommendation_text": "Panama: strong back, back at 20.00, better than 7.29, half-kelly 4.7%; Draw: strong back, back at 8.40, better than 4.43, half-kelly 6.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 63, "prediction_id": "1c6f313d-ff7b-4860-b9cb-e18e33cf24ed", "created_at": "2026-06-25T10:49:42.566007Z", "event_date": "2026-06-27", "team1": "Croatia", "team2": "Ghana", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Ghana", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 6.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.5, "draw_agent_prob": 0.27, "team2_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_market_odds": 1.85, "draw_market_odds": 3.35, "team2_market_odds": 6.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-27", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.07600000000000003, "kelly_profit": -0.07600000000000003, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.03800000000000001, "half_kelly_profit": -0.03800000000000001, "running_fixed_profit": 3.7399999999999984, "running_kelly_profit": -0.061469922720932296, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.030734961360466148, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Croatia 0.50 / draw 0.27 / Ghana 0.23; no bet on Betfair prices; confidence B.", "recommendation_text": "Ghana: strong back, back at 6.00, better than 4.43, half-kelly 3.8%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 64, "prediction_id": "4ec48fd9-de90-4c57-9cc1-5671e282aa21", "created_at": "2026-06-25T10:59:56.187156Z", "event_date": "2026-06-27", "team1": "Colombia", "team2": "Portugal", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Colombia", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 4.4, "selected_agent_prob": 0.3, "team1_agent_prob": 0.3, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.44, "team1_market_odds": 4.4, "draw_market_odds": 3.9, "team2_market_odds": 1.91, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-27", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.09411764705882354, "kelly_profit": -0.09411764705882354, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04705882352941177, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04705882352941177, "running_fixed_profit": 2.7399999999999984, "running_kelly_profit": -0.15558756977975585, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.07779378488987793, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Portugal slight favourite on neutral-site baseline; Betfair market shorter on Portugal than model, but edge gates decide.", "recommendation_text": "Colombia: strong back, back at 4.40, better than 3.40, half-kelly 4.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 65, "prediction_id": "bacb8743-b036-4faa-85a5-b8c15f61d62e", "created_at": "2026-06-25T11:08:29.984266Z", "event_date": "2026-06-27", "team1": "DR Congo", "team2": "Uzbekistan", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 4.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.26, "team1_agent_prob": 0.49, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.25, "team1_market_odds": 1.79, "draw_market_odds": 4.2, "team2_market_odds": 4.7, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-27", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.028750000000000026, "kelly_profit": -0.028750000000000026, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.014375000000000013, "half_kelly_profit": -0.014375000000000013, "running_fixed_profit": 1.7399999999999984, "running_kelly_profit": -0.18433756977975588, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.09216878488987794, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "DR Congo slight favourite from resilient low-margin profile vs Uzbekistan defensive-load risk; baseline frozen pre-odds at 0.49/0.26/0.25; market gap under disagreement threshold, no bet.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: back, back at 4.20, better than 3.92, half-kelly 1.4%; Uzbekistan: back, back at 4.70, better than 4.08, half-kelly 2.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 66, "prediction_id": "f4550b9a-02c9-4c13-9a55-43f78e4c99f4", "created_at": "2026-06-25T11:19:27.210316Z", "event_date": "2026-06-28", "team1": "Jordan", "team2": "Argentina", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Jordan", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 18.5, "selected_agent_prob": 0.08, "team1_agent_prob": 0.08, "draw_agent_prob": 0.18, "team2_agent_prob": 0.74, "team1_market_odds": 18.5, "draw_market_odds": 8.2, "team2_market_odds": 1.2, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 3, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-28", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.027428571428571434, "kelly_profit": -0.027428571428571434, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.013714285714285717, "half_kelly_profit": -0.013714285714285717, "running_fixed_profit": 0.7399999999999984, "running_kelly_profit": -0.21176614120832732, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.10588307060416366, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Jordan 0.08 / Draw 0.18 / Argentina 0.74; pre-odds baseline, no model-market gap >=0.10", "recommendation_text": "Jordan: back, back at 18.50, better than 12.75, half-kelly 1.4%; Draw: strong back, back at 8.20, better than 5.67, half-kelly 3.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 67, "prediction_id": "a0ff2ca8-eb3d-4389-9dd2-39ef5526babb", "created_at": "2026-06-25T11:28:18.022028Z", "event_date": "2026-06-28", "team1": "Algeria", "team2": "Austria", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Algeria", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 4.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.27, "team1_agent_prob": 0.27, "draw_agent_prob": 0.28, "team2_agent_prob": 0.45, "team1_market_odds": 4.0, "draw_market_odds": 2.4, "team2_market_odds": 2.94, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 3, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-28", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.02666666666666669, "kelly_profit": -0.02666666666666669, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.013333333333333345, "half_kelly_profit": -0.013333333333333345, "running_fixed_profit": -0.26000000000000156, "running_kelly_profit": -0.23843280787499402, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.11921640393749701, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Algeria 0.27 / Draw 0.28 / Austria 0.45; Betfair market most disagrees on draw/Austria; no targeted missed fact found, so baseline retained.", "recommendation_text": "Algeria: back, back at 4.00, better than 3.78, half-kelly 1.3%; Austria: strong back, back at 2.94, better than 2.27, half-kelly 8.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 68, "prediction_id": "2b0e8fe5-9720-4eb4-91a4-c99d89b22a30", "created_at": "2026-06-25T11:39:30.600994Z", "event_date": "2026-06-28", "team1": "South Africa", "team2": "Canada", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "South Africa", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 5.4, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.23, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.52, "team1_market_odds": 5.4, "draw_market_odds": 3.65, "team2_market_odds": 1.8, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-28", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.05500000000000004, "kelly_profit": -0.05500000000000004, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.02750000000000002, "half_kelly_profit": -0.02750000000000002, "running_fixed_profit": -1.2600000000000016, "running_kelly_profit": -0.29343280787499404, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.14671640393749702, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Canada clear but personnel-hit favourite; South Africa compact counter profile keeps upset/draw live; no model-market gap above 0.10.", "recommendation_text": "South Africa: back, back at 5.40, better than 4.43, half-kelly 2.8%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 69, "prediction_id": "33ef4673-9a21-4251-96da-b6dfde0087f0", "created_at": "2026-06-28T08:03:59.619289Z", "event_date": "2026-06-29", "team1": "Brazil", "team2": "Japan", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Japan", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 5.5, "selected_agent_prob": 0.25, "team1_agent_prob": 0.5, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.25, "team1_market_odds": 1.74, "draw_market_odds": 4.0, "team2_market_odds": 5.5, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-29", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08333333333333333, "kelly_profit": -0.08333333333333333, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.041666666666666664, "half_kelly_profit": -0.041666666666666664, "running_fixed_profit": -2.2600000000000016, "running_kelly_profit": -0.37676614120832735, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.18838307060416368, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Japan underdog price remains above conservative baseline threshold; small-stake high-variance value only.", "recommendation_text": "Japan: strong back, back at 5.50, better than 4.08, half-kelly 4.2%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 70, "prediction_id": "7638881f-61a4-47b3-9300-f9359dabf96e", "created_at": "2026-06-28T08:04:00.581829Z", "event_date": "2026-06-30", "team1": "Netherlands", "team2": "Morocco", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Morocco", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 4.1, "selected_agent_prob": 0.31, "team1_agent_prob": 0.43, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.31, "team1_market_odds": 2.22, "draw_market_odds": 3.2, "team2_market_odds": 4.1, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-06-30", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08741935483870966, "kelly_profit": -0.08741935483870966, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04370967741935483, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04370967741935483, "running_fixed_profit": -3.2600000000000016, "running_kelly_profit": -0.464185496047037, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.2320927480235185, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Morocco priced as live underdog against a superior but not airtight Netherlands side.", "recommendation_text": "Morocco: strong back, back at 4.10, better than 3.29, half-kelly 4.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 71, "prediction_id": "d26fb9e0-fc9e-4c10-b7f5-1980c9c59ddb", "created_at": "2026-06-30T06:56:44.406832Z", "event_date": "2026-06-30", "team1": "Ivory Coast", "team2": "Norway", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "no bet", "selected_outcome": null, "selected_odds": null, "selected_agent_prob": null, "team1_agent_prob": 0.27, "draw_agent_prob": 0.27, "team2_agent_prob": 0.46, "team1_market_odds": 3.75, "draw_market_odds": 3.5, "team2_market_odds": 2.2, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-06-30", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 0, "fixed_stake": 0.0, "fixed_profit": 0.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.0, "kelly_profit": 0.0, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0, "half_kelly_profit": 0.0, "running_fixed_profit": -3.2600000000000016, "running_kelly_profit": -0.464185496047037, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.2320927480235185, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Norway slight neutral favourite; no bet, model and Betfair broadly aligned.", "recommendation_text": "No bet: no selection clears edge, threshold, and Kelly gates.", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 72, "prediction_id": "aa009b99-4cb3-45cf-bc9a-649963a221b1", "created_at": "2026-06-30T07:07:21.407817Z", "event_date": "2026-06-30", "team1": "France", "team2": "Sweden", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 6.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.6, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.17, "team1_market_odds": 1.31, "draw_market_odds": 6.2, "team2_market_odds": 12.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-06-30", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08192307692307695, "kelly_profit": -0.08192307692307695, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04096153846153847, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04096153846153847, "running_fixed_profit": -4.260000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.546108572970114, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.273054286485057, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "prompt_changed": 1, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "France clear-favourite baseline over volatile Sweden; no Betfair value after market comparison", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 6.20, better than 4.43, half-kelly 4.1%; Sweden: strong back, back at 12.00, better than 6.00, half-kelly 4.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": "prompts/diffs/072-2026-06-30-207433de91f8-to-7af7ec26df84/" }, { "sequence": 73, "prediction_id": "ba4f2c2d-f777-44f2-8aeb-82532b40eac0", "created_at": "2026-06-28T08:04:02.170555Z", "event_date": "2026-07-01", "team1": "Mexico", "team2": "Ecuador", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Mexico", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 2.26, "selected_agent_prob": 0.49, "team1_agent_prob": 0.49, "draw_agent_prob": 0.29, "team2_agent_prob": 0.22, "team1_market_odds": 2.26, "draw_market_odds": 3.1, "team2_market_odds": 4.1, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-01", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 1.2599999999999998, "kelly_fraction": 0.08523809523809511, "kelly_profit": 0.10739999999999983, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.042619047619047556, "half_kelly_profit": 0.053699999999999914, "running_fixed_profit": -3.0000000000000018, "running_kelly_profit": -0.4387085729701141, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.21935428648505706, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "instruction_hash_short": "207433de91f8", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "prompt_changed": 1, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Mexico has a modest price edge, but Betfair liquidity is thin; cap stake.", "recommendation_text": "Mexico: back, back at 2.26, better than 2.08, half-kelly 4.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": "prompts/diffs/073-2026-07-01-7af7ec26df84-to-207433de91f8/" }, { "sequence": 74, "prediction_id": "e00d40bf-d92f-4402-be57-6a8dd1bc8273", "created_at": "2026-06-30T07:17:48.602870Z", "event_date": "2026-07-01", "team1": "England", "team2": "DR Congo", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 5.7, "selected_agent_prob": 0.22, "team1_agent_prob": 0.64, "draw_agent_prob": 0.22, "team2_agent_prob": 0.14, "team1_market_odds": 1.3, "draw_market_odds": 5.7, "team2_market_odds": 16.5, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-01", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.05404255319148936, "kelly_profit": -0.05404255319148936, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.02702127659574468, "half_kelly_profit": -0.02702127659574468, "running_fixed_profit": -4.000000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.4927511261616035, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.24637556308080175, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": "207433de91f8a8139e39f0eef47e238efdbaa482dfadb1ccc68e4e674858e285", "prompt_changed": 1, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "England 0.64 / Draw 0.22 / DR Congo 0.14; neutral Atlanta R32; Betfair market much higher on England; right-back/Wissa risk flags.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: back, back at 5.70, better than 4.64, half-kelly 2.7%; DR Congo: strong back, back at 16.50, better than 7.29, half-kelly 4.2%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": "prompts/diffs/074-2026-07-01-207433de91f8-to-7af7ec26df84/" }, { "sequence": 75, "prediction_id": "ce9e1dc8-f553-49f9-b829-074b163bffb9", "created_at": "2026-06-30T07:28:04.373088Z", "event_date": "2026-07-01", "team1": "Belgium", "team2": "Senegal", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Belgium", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 2.28, "selected_agent_prob": 0.6, "team1_agent_prob": 0.6, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.17, "team1_market_odds": 2.28, "draw_market_odds": 3.3, "team2_market_odds": 3.8, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-01", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 1.2799999999999998, "kelly_fraction": 0.2875, "kelly_profit": 0.36799999999999994, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.14375, "half_kelly_profit": 0.18399999999999997, "running_fixed_profit": -2.720000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.12475112616160355, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.06237556308080178, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Belgium clear-strength neutral-site edge over Senegal; market is lower on Belgium, but recommendation governed by ledger edge/Kelly gates.", "recommendation_text": "Belgium: strong back, back at 2.28, better than 1.70, half-kelly 14.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 76, "prediction_id": "c7c2df7d-c4d1-4d87-a807-9df0aa3e83b4", "created_at": "2026-06-30T07:46:05.451632Z", "event_date": "2026-07-02", "team1": "Spain", "team2": "Austria", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 5.5, "selected_agent_prob": 0.25, "team1_agent_prob": 0.54, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.21, "team1_market_odds": 1.35, "draw_market_odds": 5.5, "team2_market_odds": 12.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-02", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08333333333333333, "kelly_profit": -0.08333333333333333, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.041666666666666664, "half_kelly_profit": -0.041666666666666664, "running_fixed_profit": -3.720000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.20808445949493687, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.10404222974746843, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Spain elite neutral-site favourite, but winger injuries and Austria's active press keep upset/draw risk material; market rates Spain much shorter than the model.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 5.50, better than 4.08, half-kelly 4.2%; Austria: strong back, back at 12.00, better than 4.86, half-kelly 6.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 77, "prediction_id": "e372232b-d38a-45bf-a085-38a67c7c4f2d", "created_at": "2026-06-30T07:58:48.870827Z", "event_date": "2026-07-02", "team1": "Portugal", "team2": "Croatia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Croatia", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 5.3, "selected_agent_prob": 0.22, "team1_agent_prob": 0.54, "draw_agent_prob": 0.24, "team2_agent_prob": 0.22, "team1_market_odds": 1.83, "draw_market_odds": 3.65, "team2_market_odds": 5.3, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-02", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.03860465116279068, "kelly_profit": -0.03860465116279068, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.01930232558139534, "half_kelly_profit": -0.01930232558139534, "running_fixed_profit": -4.720000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.24668911065772756, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.12334455532886378, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Portugal 0.54 / draw 0.24 / Croatia 0.22; baseline aligned with Betfair, no bet.", "recommendation_text": "Croatia: back, back at 5.30, better than 4.64, half-kelly 1.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 78, "prediction_id": "d1e5f9e9-573f-4b47-a4e8-4db5ba641799", "created_at": "2026-06-30T11:33:03.721143Z", "event_date": "2026-07-02", "team1": "USA", "team2": "Bosnia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 5.1, "selected_agent_prob": 0.24, "team1_agent_prob": 0.56, "draw_agent_prob": 0.24, "team2_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_market_odds": 1.41, "draw_market_odds": 5.1, "team2_market_odds": 10.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-02", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.05463414634146339, "kelly_profit": -0.05463414634146339, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.027317073170731693, "half_kelly_profit": -0.027317073170731693, "running_fixed_profit": -5.720000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.30132325699919094, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.15066162849959547, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "USA host-nation edge and stronger first-choice core, but Bosnia draw/set-piece resistance keeps risk live; no market drift applied after Betfair check.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: back, back at 5.10, better than 4.25, half-kelly 2.7%; Bosnia: strong back, back at 10.00, better than 5.10, half-kelly 5.6%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 79, "prediction_id": "b2fd154c-cec3-48db-86a9-4df8103029ad", "created_at": "2026-06-30T08:09:15.920522Z", "event_date": "2026-07-03", "team1": "Switzerland", "team2": "Algeria", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Switzerland", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 2.12, "selected_agent_prob": 0.6, "team1_agent_prob": 0.6, "draw_agent_prob": 0.23, "team2_agent_prob": 0.17, "team1_market_odds": 2.12, "draw_market_odds": 3.35, "team2_market_odds": 4.2, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-03", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 1.12, "kelly_fraction": 0.24285714285714285, "kelly_profit": 0.272, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.12142857142857143, "half_kelly_profit": 0.136, "running_fixed_profit": -4.600000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.029323256999190916, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.014661628499595458, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Switzerland 0.60 / Draw 0.23 / Algeria 0.17; Betfair gap supports Switzerland if gates pass; confidence B.", "recommendation_text": "Switzerland: strong back, back at 2.12, better than 1.70, half-kelly 12.1%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 80, "prediction_id": "c60594d4-92a2-41a0-a331-b6d87b3f351d", "created_at": "2026-06-30T08:20:41.127768Z", "event_date": "2026-07-03", "team1": "Australia", "team2": "Egypt", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Egypt", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 2.6, "selected_agent_prob": 0.41, "team1_agent_prob": 0.3, "draw_agent_prob": 0.29, "team2_agent_prob": 0.41, "team1_market_odds": 3.5, "draw_market_odds": 2.98, "team2_market_odds": 2.6, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-07-03", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.04124999999999997, "kelly_profit": -0.04124999999999997, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.020624999999999984, "half_kelly_profit": -0.020624999999999984, "running_fixed_profit": -5.600000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.07057325699919088, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.03528662849959544, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Egypt slight baseline edge, but Salah hamstring uncertainty and neutral knockout conditions keep draw live; no pre-odds/market disagreement over 0.10.", "recommendation_text": "Egypt: back, back at 2.60, better than 2.49, half-kelly 2.1%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 81, "prediction_id": "3c965227-d0dc-4e88-8466-87c20f8e13ed", "created_at": "2026-06-30T08:37:52.783956Z", "event_date": "2026-07-03", "team1": "Argentina", "team2": "Cape Verde", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Draw", "selected_outcome": "draw", "selected_odds": 8.4, "selected_agent_prob": 0.19, "team1_agent_prob": 0.67, "draw_agent_prob": 0.19, "team2_agent_prob": 0.14, "team1_market_odds": 1.18, "draw_market_odds": 8.4, "team2_market_odds": 24.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-03", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08054054054054055, "kelly_profit": -0.08054054054054055, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.040270270270270275, "half_kelly_profit": -0.040270270270270275, "running_fixed_profit": -6.600000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.15111379753973142, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.07555689876986571, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Argentina heavy favourite, but baseline preserves Cape Verde draw/low-block resistance and no outright underdog bet; market is materially higher on Argentina than model.", "recommendation_text": "Draw: strong back, back at 8.40, better than 5.37, half-kelly 4.0%; Cape Verde: strong back, back at 24.00, better than 7.29, half-kelly 5.1%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 82, "prediction_id": "b9512bcd-b5d6-41c6-bb40-b1c881588e9d", "created_at": "2026-06-30T08:46:32.182832Z", "event_date": "2026-07-04", "team1": "Colombia", "team2": "Ghana", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Ghana", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 8.4, "selected_agent_prob": 0.19, "team1_agent_prob": 0.56, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.19, "team1_market_odds": 1.56, "draw_market_odds": 4.1, "team2_market_odds": 8.4, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-04", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.08054054054054055, "kelly_profit": -0.08054054054054055, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.040270270270270275, "half_kelly_profit": -0.040270270270270275, "running_fixed_profit": -7.600000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.23165433808027197, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.11582716904013599, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Colombia clear favourite but Betfair is shorter than model; draw/Ghana gaps below action threshold after baseline.", "recommendation_text": "Ghana: strong back, back at 8.40, better than 5.37, half-kelly 4.0%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 83, "prediction_id": "2381944c-79e3-437a-8b45-ce219c866aaf", "created_at": "2026-06-30T08:57:43.647120Z", "event_date": "2026-07-04", "team1": "Canada", "team2": "Morocco", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Canada", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 5.5, "selected_agent_prob": 0.27, "team1_agent_prob": 0.27, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.48, "team1_market_odds": 5.5, "draw_market_odds": 3.7, "team2_market_odds": 1.8, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 3, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-07-04", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.1077777777777778, "kelly_profit": -0.1077777777777778, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.0538888888888889, "half_kelly_profit": -0.0538888888888889, "running_fixed_profit": -8.600000000000001, "running_kelly_profit": -0.3394321158580498, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.1697160579290249, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Morocco stronger but Canada rest/co-host context keeps draw/Canada resistance live; no pre-market revision after odds comparison.", "recommendation_text": "Canada: strong back, back at 5.50, better than 3.78, half-kelly 5.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 84, "prediction_id": "85bd81e4-e1c0-45e4-9254-b85c72af0e76", "created_at": "2026-07-01T05:24:21.149948Z", "event_date": "2026-07-04", "team1": "Paraguay", "team2": "France", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Paraguay", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 20.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.14, "team1_agent_prob": 0.14, "draw_agent_prob": 0.22, "team2_agent_prob": 0.64, "team1_market_odds": 20.0, "draw_market_odds": 7.2, "team2_market_odds": 1.21, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-07-04", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.09473684210526317, "kelly_profit": -0.09473684210526317, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.04736842105263159, "half_kelly_profit": -0.04736842105263159, "running_fixed_profit": -9.600000000000001, "running_kelly_profit": -0.43416895796331295, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.21708447898165648, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "France strong favourite; model keeps more draw/Paraguay resistance than Betfair but no underdog-win path; disagreement recheck found no named missed fact.", "recommendation_text": "Paraguay: strong back, back at 20.00, better than 7.29, half-kelly 4.7%; Draw: strong back, back at 7.20, better than 4.64, half-kelly 4.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 85, "prediction_id": "257a3cbe-c10f-4505-ac89-ff04d9cb3624", "created_at": "2026-07-05T05:24:13.003407Z", "event_date": "2026-07-05", "team1": "Brazil", "team2": "Norway", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Norway", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 5.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.31, "team1_agent_prob": 0.43, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.31, "team1_market_odds": 1.83, "draw_market_odds": 3.85, "team2_market_odds": 5.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-07-05", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 4.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.1375, "kelly_profit": 0.55, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.06875, "half_kelly_profit": 0.275, "running_fixed_profit": -5.600000000000001, "running_kelly_profit": 0.11583104203668709, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.057915521018343546, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Brazil 0.43 / draw 0.26 / Norway 0.31; confidence B; Norway value gap from independent baseline, lineup/availability risk live", "recommendation_text": "Norway: strong back, back at 5.00, better than 3.29, half-kelly 6.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 86, "prediction_id": "543c1417-3059-4c0f-b9d6-eb98c1bdcc43", "created_at": "2026-07-01T23:24:46.164342Z", "event_date": "2026-07-06", "team1": "Mexico", "team2": "England", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Mexico", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 3.4, "selected_agent_prob": 0.38, "team1_agent_prob": 0.38, "draw_agent_prob": 0.28, "team2_agent_prob": 0.34, "team1_market_odds": 3.4, "draw_market_odds": 3.2, "team2_market_odds": 2.5, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 3, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-07-06", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.12166666666666665, "kelly_profit": -0.12166666666666665, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.06083333333333332, "half_kelly_profit": -0.06083333333333332, "running_fixed_profit": -6.600000000000001, "running_kelly_profit": -0.005835624629979552, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.002917812314989776, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Mexico 0.38 / Draw 0.28 / England 0.34; host-altitude edge narrows England squad-quality advantage; no bet at current Betfair prices.", "recommendation_text": "Mexico: strong back, back at 3.40, better than 2.68, half-kelly 6.1%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 87, "prediction_id": "07e7aa42-d214-4d14-8ba5-92e3c5f10095", "created_at": "2026-07-03T05:24:25.652879Z", "event_date": "2026-07-06", "team1": "Portugal", "team2": "Spain", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Portugal", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 4.1, "selected_agent_prob": 0.28, "team1_agent_prob": 0.28, "draw_agent_prob": 0.27, "team2_agent_prob": 0.45, "team1_market_odds": 4.1, "draw_market_odds": 3.65, "team2_market_odds": 2.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-07-06", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.04774193548387098, "kelly_profit": -0.04774193548387098, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.02387096774193549, "half_kelly_profit": -0.02387096774193549, "running_fixed_profit": -7.600000000000001, "running_kelly_profit": -0.05357756011385053, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.026788780056925265, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Spain slight same-tier edge at neutral Dallas; baseline kept after Betfair comparison, no model-market gap >=0.10.", "recommendation_text": "Portugal: back, back at 4.10, better than 3.64, half-kelly 2.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 88, "prediction_id": "1d221b47-d3e9-47ee-ac6d-8406c335183e", "created_at": "2026-07-06T05:36:52.720799Z", "event_date": "2026-07-07", "team1": "USA", "team2": "Belgium", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Belgium", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 2.86, "selected_agent_prob": 0.44, "team1_agent_prob": 0.31, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.44, "team1_market_odds": 2.68, "draw_market_odds": 3.55, "team2_market_odds": 2.86, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 4, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-07-07", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 1.8599999999999999, "kelly_fraction": 0.13892473118279564, "kelly_profit": 0.25839999999999985, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.06946236559139782, "half_kelly_profit": 0.12919999999999993, "running_fixed_profit": -5.740000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": 0.20482243988614932, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.10241121994307466, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Belgium slight favourite on quality, USA host/rest/availability keeps it close; no model-market gap reaches disagreement threshold.", "recommendation_text": "Belgium: strong back, back at 2.86, better than 2.32, half-kelly 6.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 89, "prediction_id": "396bdef2-4e20-404e-a31c-bd7f51355675", "created_at": "2026-07-06T05:41:10.530067Z", "event_date": "2026-07-07", "team1": "Switzerland", "team2": "Colombia", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Switzerland", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 3.65, "selected_agent_prob": 0.38, "team1_agent_prob": 0.38, "draw_agent_prob": 0.27, "team2_agent_prob": 0.35, "team1_market_odds": 3.65, "draw_market_odds": 3.15, "team2_market_odds": 2.4, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "draw", "result_match_date": "2026-07-07", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.14603773584905658, "kelly_profit": -0.14603773584905658, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.07301886792452829, "half_kelly_profit": -0.07301886792452829, "running_fixed_profit": -6.740000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": 0.05878470403709274, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.02939235201854637, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "World Cup R16 at BC Place Vancouver, 2026-07-07 20:00 GMT/21:00 BST; baseline kept after Betfair disagreement re-check: Switzerland 0.38 / draw 0.27 / Colombia 0.35.", "recommendation_text": "Switzerland: strong back, back at 3.65, better than 2.68, half-kelly 7.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 90, "prediction_id": "4a689033-104d-4f73-8b8d-f73dacebf648", "created_at": "2026-07-06T05:42:50.529879Z", "event_date": "2026-07-07", "team1": "Argentina", "team2": "Egypt", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Egypt", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 10.5, "selected_agent_prob": 0.18, "team1_agent_prob": 0.62, "draw_agent_prob": 0.2, "team2_agent_prob": 0.18, "team1_market_odds": 1.4, "draw_market_odds": 5.0, "team2_market_odds": 10.5, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-07", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.09368421052631577, "kelly_profit": -0.09368421052631577, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.046842105263157886, "half_kelly_profit": -0.046842105263157886, "running_fixed_profit": -7.740000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.034899506489223034, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.017449753244611517, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Argentina strong favourite, but price is shorter than model; no value edge after Betfair comparison.", "recommendation_text": "Egypt: strong back, back at 10.50, better than 5.67, half-kelly 4.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 91, "prediction_id": "ee73ff30-b694-49af-947a-6ed8ee911ba6", "created_at": "2026-07-06T05:48:44.119966Z", "event_date": "2026-07-09", "team1": "France", "team2": "Morocco", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Morocco", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 7.0, "selected_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_agent_prob": 0.51, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.23, "team1_market_odds": 1.62, "draw_market_odds": 4.1, "team2_market_odds": 7.0, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 0, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-09", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.10166666666666668, "kelly_profit": -0.10166666666666668, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.05083333333333334, "half_kelly_profit": -0.05083333333333334, "running_fixed_profit": -8.740000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.1365661731558897, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.06828308657794485, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "France 0.51 / Draw 0.26 / Morocco 0.23; ledger recommends Morocco at 7.00 after Betfair comparison.", "recommendation_text": "Morocco: strong back, back at 7.00, better than 4.43, half-kelly 5.1%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 92, "prediction_id": "cf96b172-b1d3-4981-98c7-ccc4510118f0", "created_at": "2026-07-07T05:31:23.157193Z", "event_date": "2026-07-10", "team1": "Spain", "team2": "Belgium", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Belgium", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 5.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.27, "team1_agent_prob": 0.48, "draw_agent_prob": 0.25, "team2_agent_prob": 0.27, "team1_market_odds": 1.67, "draw_market_odds": 4.2, "team2_market_odds": 5.8, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 2, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-10", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.11791666666666668, "kelly_profit": -0.11791666666666668, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.05895833333333334, "half_kelly_profit": -0.05895833333333334, "running_fixed_profit": -9.740000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.2544828398225564, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.1272414199112782, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Spain marginal baseline edge over Belgium, but Betfair rates Spain much shorter; no named missed fact found on re-check, prediction remains pre-odds baseline.", "recommendation_text": "Belgium: strong back, back at 5.80, better than 3.78, half-kelly 5.9%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 93, "prediction_id": "6a3cb7a4-8c2a-46d5-8885-36a0f84f8422", "created_at": "2026-07-06T05:41:42.943828Z", "event_date": "2026-07-11", "team1": "Norway", "team2": "England", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Norway", "selected_outcome": "team1", "selected_odds": 4.1, "selected_agent_prob": 0.34, "team1_agent_prob": 0.34, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.4, "team1_market_odds": 4.1, "draw_market_odds": 3.6, "team2_market_odds": 2.04, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-07-11", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.12709677419354845, "kelly_profit": -0.12709677419354845, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.06354838709677423, "half_kelly_profit": -0.06354838709677423, "running_fixed_profit": -10.740000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.38157961401610485, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.19078980700805243, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Norway 0.34 / Draw 0.26 / England 0.40; neutral quarter-final; no market-driven revision; Betfair comparison after baseline.", "recommendation_text": "Norway: strong back, back at 4.10, better than 3.00, half-kelly 6.4%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 94, "prediction_id": "43e62202-0419-4096-ab2c-24d54d2eefc6", "created_at": "2026-07-07T23:25:04.667266Z", "event_date": "2026-07-12", "team1": "Argentina", "team2": "Switzerland", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Switzerland", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 5.8, "selected_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_agent_prob": 0.56, "draw_agent_prob": 0.24, "team2_agent_prob": 0.2, "team1_market_odds": 1.76, "draw_market_odds": 3.7, "team2_market_odds": 5.8, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 3, "result_team2_score": 1, "result_outcome": "team1", "result_match_date": "2026-07-12", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 0, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": -1.0, "kelly_fraction": 0.03333333333333332, "kelly_profit": -0.03333333333333332, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.01666666666666666, "half_kelly_profit": -0.01666666666666666, "running_fixed_profit": -11.740000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.4149129473494382, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.2074564736747191, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Argentina edge Switzerland, but market broadly agrees; no material model-market gap.", "recommendation_text": "Switzerland: back, back at 5.80, better than 5.10, half-kelly 1.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 95, "prediction_id": "0694f437-2658-465f-a58f-9f3b4ae1c101", "created_at": "2026-07-10T23:23:17.220656Z", "event_date": "2026-07-14", "team1": "France", "team2": "Spain", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Spain", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 3.4, "selected_agent_prob": 0.34, "team1_agent_prob": 0.38, "draw_agent_prob": 0.28, "team2_agent_prob": 0.34, "team1_market_odds": 2.4, "draw_market_odds": 3.35, "team2_market_odds": 3.4, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 0, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-07-14", "result_source": "prediction-ledger", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 2.4, "kelly_fraction": 0.06500000000000006, "kelly_profit": 0.15600000000000014, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.03250000000000003, "half_kelly_profit": 0.07800000000000007, "running_fixed_profit": -9.340000000000002, "running_kelly_profit": -0.25891294734943804, "running_half_kelly_profit": -0.12945647367471902, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "France 0.38 / draw 0.28 / Spain 0.34; neutral World Cup semi-final, elite-vs-elite, mild France rest/availability edge; Betfair gaps below disagreement threshold.", "recommendation_text": "Spain: back, back at 3.40, better than 3.00, half-kelly 3.3%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null }, { "sequence": 96, "prediction_id": "c30597be-7da2-445f-87fb-99a83561a8a6", "created_at": "2026-07-12T05:24:46.215679Z", "event_date": "2026-07-15", "team1": "England", "team2": "Argentina", "market_type": "1x2", "recommended_selection": "Argentina", "selected_outcome": "team2", "selected_odds": 3.2, "selected_agent_prob": 0.46, "team1_agent_prob": 0.28, "draw_agent_prob": 0.26, "team2_agent_prob": 0.46, "team1_market_odds": 2.6, "draw_market_odds": 3.1, "team2_market_odds": 3.2, "team1_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "draw_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "team2_market_source": "betfair-exchange", "result_team1_score": 1, "result_team2_score": 2, "result_outcome": "team2", "result_match_date": "2026-07-15", "result_source": "FIFA Match Centre 400021540; ESPN gameId 760515", "won": 1, "is_bet": 1, "fixed_stake": 1.0, "fixed_profit": 2.2, "kelly_fraction": 0.21454545454545462, "kelly_profit": 0.4720000000000002, "half_kelly_fraction": 0.10727272727272731, "half_kelly_profit": 0.2360000000000001, "running_fixed_profit": -7.1400000000000015, "running_kelly_profit": 0.21308705265056216, "running_half_kelly_profit": 0.10654352632528108, "instruction_doc_name": "instruction-head-to-head", "instruction_blob_hash": "7af7ec26df8428b4588e5cf01d582499eaf7df7307c2d60788fe9bd5621a27c3", "instruction_hash_short": "7af7ec26df84", "previous_instruction_blob_hash": null, "prompt_changed": 0, "update_instruction_doc_name": "instruction-updating", "update_instruction_blob_hash": "0cfbf10a035f83ee8c39598d33d498aedcfb2ede7174611399edac3813094193", "update_instruction_hash_short": "0cfbf10a035f", "post_mortem_performed": 0, "post_mortem_at": null, "post_mortem_instruction_doc_name": null, "post_mortem_instruction_blob_hash": "", "post_mortem_instruction_hash_short": "", "summary": "Pre-odds baseline England 0.28 / draw 0.26 / Argentina 0.46 (confidence B); Quansah suspension accounted for; no recorded H2H.", "recommendation_text": "Argentina: strong back, back at 3.20, better than 2.22, half-kelly 10.7%", "source_created_strictly_prior": 1, "prompt_diff_url": null } ] }