Head-to-head prompt diff
207433de91f8 → 7af7ec26df84
| 207433de91f8 | 7af7ec26df84 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87 | - Renormalize so the three probabilities sum to exactly 1.00 at two decimal places; absorb rounding | 87 | - Renormalize so the three probabilities sum to exactly 1.00 at two decimal places; absorb rounding | ||
| > | in the largest probability. | > | in the largest probability. | ||
| 88 | 88 | ||||
| 89 | ### Step B5 — quant cross-check | 89 | ### Step B5 — quant cross-check | ||
| 90 | 90 | ||||
| n | 91 | If the recorded-stats card includes a quant reference, compare it with your numbers. Any outcome dif | n | 91 | If the recorded-stats card includes a quant reference, compare it with your numbers. Any outcome dif |
| > | fering from the reference by more than 0.15 requires one sentence explaining why (the reference is v | > | fering from the reference by more than 0.15 requires one sentence explaining why (the reference is v | ||
| > | enue-agnostic, blind to opponent quality, and underestimates draws — differences are often right, bu | > | enue-agnostic, blind to opponent quality, and underestimates draws — differences are often right, bu | ||
| > | t you must be able to say why yours is). If the card says "not computed", note that and move on. The | > | t you must be able to say why yours is). If the card says "not computed", note that and move on. The | ||
| > | reference is never the baseline; never copy it. | > | reference is never the baseline; never copy it. Because it ignores the quality of past opponents, i | ||
| > | t systematically over-rates a weaker side that has lately beaten weak or friendly opposition; when i | ||||
| > | t rates the underdog at or above the favourite, that is its blind spot, not evidence — never let it | ||||
| > | lift the underdog or trim the favourite below the Step B1 anchor. | ||||
| 92 | 92 | ||||
| 93 | ### Step B6 — freeze | 93 | ### Step B6 — freeze | ||
| 94 | 94 | ||||
| 95 | Write the `BASELINE (pre-odds)` line with the confidence grade. The ledger entry must use exactly th | 95 | Write the `BASELINE (pre-odds)` line with the confidence grade. The ledger entry must use exactly th | ||
| > | e prediction-of-record numbers that survive the disagreement protocol. | > | e prediction-of-record numbers that survive the disagreement protocol. | ||
| 136 | - probability synthesis, recommendation, and risk flags for this fixture | 136 | - probability synthesis, recommendation, and risk flags for this fixture | ||
| 137 | 137 | ||||
| 138 | If a piece of research is only meaningful because of the opponent, keep it in the H2H report. If it | 138 | If a piece of research is only meaningful because of the opponent, keep it in the H2H report. If it | ||
| > | changes the reusable understanding of the team, update the scorecard — but never with market prices. | > | changes the reusable understanding of the team, update the scorecard — but never with market prices. | ||
| 139 | 139 | ||||
| n | 140 | n | |||
| 141 | ## Post-mortem learning loop | 140 | ## Post-mortem learning loop | ||
| 142 | 141 | ||||
| 143 | When settled bets or prediction rows are reviewed, feed back durable observations as calibration que | 142 | When settled bets or prediction rows are reviewed, feed back durable observations as calibration que | ||
| > | stions rather than mechanical overrides. Small samples can reveal recurring blind spots, but they sh | > | stions rather than mechanical overrides. Small samples can reveal recurring blind spots, but they sh | ||
| > | ould improve the next baseline narrative instead of adding rigid rules. | > | ould improve the next baseline narrative instead of adding rigid rules. | ||
| 144 | 143 | ||||
| 149 | - When backing a longshot against a strong favourite, is the upset path football-specific and source | 148 | - When backing a longshot against a strong favourite, is the upset path football-specific and source | ||
| > | d, or is it mostly a price gap created by preserving generic underdog mass? | > | d, or is it mostly a price gap created by preserving generic underdog mass? | ||
| 150 | - For confidence C predictions, what fact would need to be true for the model-market disagreement to | 149 | - For confidence C predictions, what fact would need to be true for the model-market disagreement to | ||
| > | be credible, and what unresolved data gap could break it? Keep the ledger disagreement, but label t | > | be credible, and what unresolved data gap could break it? Keep the ledger disagreement, but label t | ||
| > | he evidence quality plainly. | > | he evidence quality plainly. | ||
| 151 | - In mismatches, separate team-strength gap from match-shape variance: low blocks, tournament-openin | 150 | - In mismatches, separate team-strength gap from match-shape variance: low blocks, tournament-openin | ||
| > | g caution, finishing variance, goalkeeper paths, travel/logistics, and game-state incentives can sus | > | g caution, finishing variance, goalkeeper paths, travel/logistics, and game-state incentives can sus | ||
| > | tain draw/upset probability without implying the weaker team is close in underlying quality. | > | tain draw/upset probability without implying the weaker team is close in underlying quality. | ||
| 152 | - If a hedge or trade later changes the realised Betfair result, keep that separate from prediction | 151 | - If a hedge or trade later changes the realised Betfair result, keep that separate from prediction | ||
| > | calibration. The methodology review should still judge the original pre-match probability record aga | > | calibration. The methodology review should still judge the original pre-match probability record aga | ||
| > | inst the football outcome. | > | inst the football outcome. | ||
| t | t | 152 | |||
| 153 | ### Calibration note from settled 2026 World Cup bets (as of 2026-06-30) | ||||
| 154 | |||||
| 155 | The settled-bet record exposes one recurring failure, large enough to treat as calibration (not a ru | ||||
| > | le): backing the **weaker side to win outright** has gone about 2 from 43 (~5%, far below the ~20–25 | ||||
| > | % those baselines implied), while backing the **draw** in comparable mismatches has been net positiv | ||||
| > | e (about 6 from 17, the winners being low-block or tournament-caution results such as 0-0s). In roug | ||||
| > | hly 57 of 68 rows the frozen baseline gave the market favourite *less* probability than the de-overr | ||||
| > | ounded market did. Read it as: | ||||
| 156 | |||||
| 157 | - The mechanism is **favourite compression** — trimming a strong side below its Step B1 anchor so th | ||||
| > | e weaker side keeps "value" mass it has not earned. Anchor the favourite from squad strength and let | ||||
| > | only sourced, fixture-specific facts within the B3 caps move it. Recent form (B3 = 0) and the oppon | ||||
| > | ent-blind quant reference (B5) must never pull the favourite down or lift the underdog. | ||||
| 158 | - When your honest disagreement is "the favourite is less certain than the price," express it throug | ||||
| > | h the **draw / avoid-defeat** channel and the risk flags, not as a back-the-underdog-to-win selectio | ||||
| > | n. Backing the weaker team to win outright needs a named, sourced upset path (key absence, an exploi | ||||
| > | table tactical mismatch, must-win versus dead-rubber stakes) — preserved generic mass is not a path; | ||||
| > | absent one, prefer the draw or no-bet. | ||||
| 159 | |||||
| 160 | This stays calibration, not a ban: a real, sourced upset edge is still backed and still recorded. Th | ||||
| > | e aim is only to stop manufacturing underdog edges out of favourite compression. | ||||
| 153 | 161 | ||||
| 154 | These are prompts for synthesis, not automatic probability moves. Apply them only when supported by | 162 | These are prompts for synthesis, not automatic probability moves. Apply them only when supported by | ||
| > | the scorecards, recorded-stats card, and sourced fixture context, and document the reasoning in the | > | the scorecards, recorded-stats card, and sourced fixture context, and document the reasoning in the | ||
| > | baseline, market comparison, or risk flags as appropriate. | > | baseline, market comparison, or risk flags as appropriate. | ||
| 155 | 163 | ||||
| 156 | ## Report structure | 164 | ## Report structure | ||